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Wednesday 29 April 2009

forex trade signals for week from 29/04/09

Tuesday saw a big rumor of higher Consumer Confidence figures get proven right, please watch the video for further analysis of that. the EUR/USD seems to be wavering around within it's down channel, so sells in the 1.3250 to 1.3300 range look like a good opportunity for today, but be aware we may see some heightened risk appetite in anticipation of a rosy FOMC interest statement, especially if GDP comes out a bit better than expected. Gold also looks like a good short anywhere from 900 to 912 with a convincing rally through 918 as a good mental stop. Stocks continue to consolidate but seem to be running out of steam. We might have one last blowout rally left IF we get good news today, but if not... look out below. For the news on Wednesday:

0830 US GDP Annualized q/q Advance (consensus somewhere from -4.7 to -4.9%) - I think we could see a nice clean trade off this one in either direction, but on the sell side be wary in case traders feverishly buy a nice dip in anticipation of the FOMC.
If it comes out at -5.4% or lower, EUR/JPY should sell off by 50 pips.
If it comes out at -4.3% or higher, EUR/JPY should rally by 50 pips.

1415 US FOMC Interest Rate Decision/Statement (Expected to possibly cut rates from 0.25% to 0.13% and/or announce some new measures such as an expansion of MBS purchases to stimulate the economy) - As I mention in the video, the markets are eagerly expecting some form of juicy news from the FOMC this week. A cut to 0.13%, new unconventional measures... something... anything... Because of this we may see some risk appetite buying in advance of this announcement.
--If we do see people loading up long, and they do cut rates or push out a big new accomodative program or expand the scope of a current program or something, we will likely see a sharp spike up in EUR/JPY, but the profit taking afterwards will likely cause it to reverse, so I would likely look for some sort of reversal sell after the rally as long as the announcement isn't Earth-shattering.
--If there is no pre-news buying pressure during the European or NY sessions, then I would trade the news straight up and buy EUR/JPY on good accomodative news or an interest rate cut
--No matter what the setup, if there is no cut and no groundbreaking new programs or expansions, the markets will be disappointed and EUR/JPY should be a good sell.
--Lastly, if the Fed pulls a 180 and starts to express more immediate concern about inflation and withdrawing liquidity, that will create VERY strong selling pressure as that is the first step towards removing accomodation and that should be a clear EUR/JPY selling opportunity.

1700 NZ Interest Rates (expected 0.50% cut to 2.50%) - I think the only clear trade here is if they cut by more than expected. I'd feel too uncomfortable buying on a smaller cut:
If they cut by 0.75% or more, NZD/USD should sell off by 50 pips or more.

Tuesday 28 April 2009

At the close of the markets on Friday evening Wall Street was at its lowest point in 6 years

EUR rose sharply against the USD shortly before the close of U.S. markets on Friday. Indeed, before last week (in which the USD rose steeply), traders and investors preferred to take their profits. Their decisions were based on the speculation about the proposed nationalisation of some U.S. banks by the weekend. Thus the EUR, which was trading with below 1.2557 USD on Friday took over 400 pips this morning and has traded throughout this morning at about 1.2974 USD, close to the psychologically important threshold of 1.30.
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JPY – it has started this week with a sharp rise against the major currencies. There seems to be a return of a taste for risk taking appearing again on the markets. At 09.00 GMT, EUR/USD is trading at 120.76 compared with 119.15 JPY at the opening this morning. The USD/JPY, for its part, is stable at 93.16, compared with 93.21 at the opening this morning, after its sharp rise last week, which saw the cross take nearly 400 pips.
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The GBP also rose against the USD this morning with a start of around 1.4566 – could this be the start of a move towards 1.47 barrier ? For the moment the cable continues its upward phase and is currently testing the threshold of 1.4600. Although no major announcement is planned high volatility today is expected on this pair with an expected range of 1.4450 - 1.4750

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WHY GOLD IS A SAFE YET SEXY INVESTMENT IN TODAYS MARKET

This is an article all about gold bars and contains some detailed information about gold bars, the various types there are and who manufactures them.

What is a Gold Bar
All gold is measured in troy ounces and the purity is measured in karats (not to be confused with the weight measurement of carats for diamonds), and comes in a variety of forms sizes and weights. The definition of a gold bar is considered to be:

"A bar of gold made by a recognized bar manufacturer regardless of shape and size and upon which is reported the exact weight and purity of the gold as well as a registration number."

The larger bars are called ingots and are made by casting. That is poring molten gold into moulds. The smaller bars are made by pressing gold strips with a huge multi tonne stamp much in the same way gold coins are made. These are usually called biscuits, although not so crunchy. All bars of gold, regardless of size, should have stamped on them, the weight, the size and the manufacturers stamp. Also a registration number that corresponds with a certificate, which should also accompany every bar.

The advantage of smaller bars is of course the convenience. Gold is heavy and toting around 400 ounce bars is not for everyone. A couple of ounces of gold can be carried around in a pocket however. Smaller bars are easier to buy and sell due to the lower cost involved they are easier to store and transport. The disadvantage is the price. They carry a higher premium over the value of the gold due to the costs involved in manufacture.

The advantage of buying larger bars or ingots is that the premium is considerably lower per ounce and usually a fraction above the spot price of gold for the day of the sale. The disadvantages of course are the shipping and storing considerations. They are much more difficult to move around and store due to their weight. It is also harder to sell a larger bar or ingot than a smaller one due to the shipping, security and costs involved. In fact most of the larger ingots are stored in bank vaults around the world and the ownership is simply transferred by paper. The gold itself is rarely moved.

Types of Gold Bars
In 2008, the Bank of England Museum hosted the International Gold Bars Collection. Here all the various types of gold bars were displayed. There were literally hundreds of these from the basic 400 ounce bars to donuts and double pendants to fillets of wafer thin gold bars. Many of the most common bars which, with a little searching, you can find are described here.

400 ounce or 12.5 kg Gold Bar
There are about 55 active manufacturers worldwide whose 400 ounce or 12.5 kg gold bars are known and accepted internationally as London Good Delivery. All 400 ounce London Good Delivery gold bars weigh between 350 ounces and 430 ounces with a minimum gold purity of 99.5%. About 150,000 are made each year

Kilogold Bars
The Kilogold bar (1000 grams) is popular among investors and fabricators being traded at a low premium above the spot price of gold and is probably the world’s most widely traded small gold bar.
Most Kilogold bars have a flat international shape, but many investors and fabricators in Europe prefer traditional Kilogold bars in the shape of a brick.

'Tezabi' Gold Bars
These roughcast gold bars are manufactured in Pakistan by the thousand in small backyard gold bar manufacturers. They are to a theoretical 99.9% purity. The gold bars are not manufactured to any specific weight but are usually around 99.9% pure. The size can depend on the amount of gold available to the manufacturer as they are usually made from old gold or melted down gold jewelery.

You often find that the Tezabi will resemble some of the earliest known gold coins made by the Lydian kings of Asia Minor in the 7th century BC. The method used by Pakistanis in the manufacture of Tezabi gold bars is not believed to have changed in over 2,000 years. The Exhibition displays Tezabi gold bars manufactured by Saleh Mohammed in Pakistan.

Tael Gold Bars
A tael is more widely known as a Chinese unit of weight. One tael is equivalent to 1.2 ounces or 37.4 grams. Tael gold bars, which are cast not pressed, ranging from 1 tael to 10 taels, and are widely traded in Chinese-speaking countries, such as Hong Kong and Taiwan.

Cast tael gold bars are manufactured in 3 shapes: 'biscuits', 'doughnuts' and 'boats' The 'boat' shape is known to have been used for silver and other Chinese coinage as far back as the Han dynasty (206 BC - 220 AD) so it is not unexpected that gold 'boats' should be made also.

The most popular is the 5 Tael 'biscuit' cast gold bar, 6 onces or 187 grams. these gold bars, manufactured in Hong Kong by the Chinese Gold & Silver Exchange (founded in 1910), are traded in large quantities. Minted tael gold bars, normally made outside Hong Kong, are also available.

Lastly, the Tael gold bars, known as 'donuts', are available in smaller sizes with a hole in the center. This makes it easy for the donut gold bars to be securely stacked or bound together with string.

Baht Gold Bars
The baht is the unit of weight in Thailand. The most popular gold bar here is the 10 baht gold bar. This is usually 4.9 ounces or 150.4 grams and is 96.5 percent pure gold.

Tola Gold Bars
The tola is the Indian unit of weight. The most popular cast gold bar being the 10 tola equal to 3.75 ounces or 116.64 grams in weight. These are very popular with over two million cast each year in Europe, imported and widely traded in such places as the Middle East, India, Pakistan and Singapore.

The ten-tola bar is distinctive in that it has no serial number and is often used for smuggling. The edges are round rather than sharp and so are an ideal for smuggling, inside a smuggler’s body. Round tola gold bars very form part of 'marriage necklaces' weighing over 500 grams in Pakistan where they are very popular.

Chi Gold Bars
The chi is a Vietnamese unit of weight. 1 chi weighs 3.75 grams. 10 chi (or 1 cay or 1 luong) weighs 37.5 grams. Pamp (Switzerland) was the first among the accredited manufacturers to produce a range of chi denominated minted gold bars for Vietnam.

Decorative Gold Bars
Prior to 1980 gold bars were rather plain. Then decorated, even hologramed gold bars began to make their appearance. The manufacture of decorative gold bars is dominated mainly by manufacturers in Switzerland, Germany and Brazil with Pamp Suisse(Switzerland) pioneering multi-coloured hologram designs to minted gold bars in the 1990s. These gold bars are distributed worldwide and are very popular in the Middle East.

'Rainbow' Gold Bars
Mitsubishi (Japan), traditionally with a finger in very pie, is the pioneer manufacturer of multi-coloured ‘rainbow’ gold bars. This process produces various karat gold tones resulting in an infinite variety of gold patterns. The 'Rainbow' gold bar purity is set at 75 percent or 19 karat gold

Fine Gold Cards
Mitsubishi also pioneered fine gold business cards in the 1980s. These gold cards are very popular in Japan to impress VIP clients. Multi-coloured printed designs are available on the very thin sheet cards available from under 200 dollars each. Gold business cars up to 1000 g are available but the most popular and common card is the one gram gold card. They are available all over Japan as well as on the net by Mitsubishi.

'Yin-Yang' Gold Bars
Ishifuku, in Japan, have created to unusual kidney shaped gold bars representing the harmony of opposites in the Zen philosophy.

'Koban' Gold Bars
Tokuriki Honten, Also in Japan, has been manufacturing the ‘Koban’ gold bars since the early 1960s. These range in weight from 5 grams up to 50 grams. These gold bars commemorate the oval shape of traditional Japanese gold coinage issued between the 16th and 19th centuries.

'Twin-Coin' Gold Bar
Yoo Long Kim Kee (Thailand) was the first to manufacture a decorative cast gold bar to a precise weight through injecting gold into an enclosed mould under pressure. The Exhibition displays an experimental 1 baht gold bar, described as a ‘twin-coin’ gold bar, which was manufactured in 1992.

'Gold Leaf' Gold Bars
Widely used by Vietnamese refugees during the Vietnam war are the “Gold Leaf” gold bars. From the 1930s right up until 1975 these ultra thin bars were manufactured all over Vietnam. Being so thin they were easily hidden in clothing, placed between the soles of shoes and rolled up into narrow tubes. The standard “Gold Leaf” gold bar weighs around 15 g.

'Gold Fillet' Gold Bars
'Gold Fillet' gold bars, manufactured from thin rolled gold strips, are produced mainly for display purposes to demonstrate the official stamps of 400 oz or 12.5 kg gold bars. They illustrate the official stamps and other markings which appear only on London Good Delivery 400 oz gold bars.

Pendant & Double Pendant Gold Bars
Degussa (Germany) is recorded as the first among accredited manufacturers to have manufactured in 1978 a minted gold bar in an unconventional (hexagonal) shape, incorporating a hole so it can be used as a pendant. This concept was expanded by Pamp Suisse in 1984, with the production of minted gold bars in a number of unusual shapes. These are still around and can sometimes be bought from gold dealers and jewellers. In 1996, Pamp (Switzerland) launched the ‘double-pendant’ gold bars in the Middle East. These are available 10 gram, 7.5 gram and 5 gram with two inner shapes: heart and circular design.

Bank Gold Bars
Some banks have issued minted gold bars, marked with their own name but manufactured by an external manufacturer. In Europe and Brazil, minted ‘bank’ gold bars are widely available

Commemorative Gold Bars
Many countries commission the manufacture of Commemorative gold bars, Most notably Degussa (Germany) and Degussa (Brazil). The Chinese have also issued commemorative gold bars of Tuan Tuan and Yuan Yuan bars commemorating important national or international events. The minting of ‘commemorative’ gold bars, incorporating the mark of the accredited manufacturer, is not yet widespread but a selection of commemorative gold bars are displayed.

Heart Gold Bars
Innovative 'heart' gold bars, defined as heart-shaped or incorporating a heart design, were first made by Pamp SA in 1994, the outcome of a World Gold Council initiative in Singapore. The ‘heart’ gold bars of ARY Traders (UAE), launched in 1997, have aroused much interest in UAE, Pakistan and India and the Exhibition displays ‘heart’ gold bars from both manufacturers.

Kinegold Bars™
Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS), through its subsidiary refinery, Argor-Heraeus SA, has applied a KINEGRAM™ as a security device to the reverse of its minted gold bars since December 1993. This new gold bar is called kinegold bar™. KINEGRAM™ is the trade mark of the security device developed by Landis & Gyr Communications.

Bas-Relief Gold Bar
Buan Hua Long (Thailand) marks its standard 5, 10 and 25 baht gold bars in bas-relief. This is done when the bars are cast. The marks are carved into the base of the gold bar mould and formed as soon as the molten gold is poured into the mould eliminating the need for conventional marking tools: dies, punches and hammers.

Cartoon Gold Bars
Even cartoon gold bars are available. Pamp (Switzerland) introduced designs in 1996, from Warner Bros such as Tweety and Bugs Bunny, and, later, in 1997, from Disney, Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck.

Spanish Gold Bars
SEMPSA (Spain) has manufactured a 50 gram bar in the shape of a brick'. It is possibly the only minted gold bar among accredited gold bar manufacturers worldwide to have tapered sides, closely resembling the shape of typical large 400 oz or 12.5 kg London Good Delivery gold bars.

'Dore' Gold Bars
Most major gold mines process their gold-bearing ore at the site of the mine, producing low purity 'dore' gold bars. These rough gold bars are sent to gold refineries for upgrading into tradeable gold bars of high purity (99.5% or more). ‘Dore’ gold bars are normally quite large, some weighing as much as 25 kg. They are mainly used for transporting gold and not for trade.

'Garimpo' Dore
'Garimpo' dore gold bars are made by 'Garimpeiros', Brazilian peasants who independently mine gold in the Amazon jungle. Brazil was the world’s major source of newly-mined gold in the 18th century and still produces around 75 tonnes each year.

Gold Manufacturers & Refiners
Here we have a list of the world gold manufacturers and refiners. They are listed by country and in alphabetical order. Sometimes a gold bar might bear more than one assay stamp. In that case the lower value stamp is the one taken.

Disclaimer: As manufacturers and refiners come and go and various countries are subject to political, economic and other upheavals from time to time, there is no guarantee that any of the following are still operational although it is expected that most are. It is suggested that one does one’s own due diligence and checks out the manufacturer or refiner of one’s choice before approaching any to buy gold.

Tuesday 21 April 2009

Forex Trade tips for 21-24 April 2009

CURRENCY CURRENT BIAS POTENTIAL STRATEGY
EUR/USD (Medium Term) Buy EUR/USD at 1.2947. Stop at 1.2840. Profit targets at 1.3151, 1.3317.
GBP/USD (Medium Term) Wait until a new pattern emerges.
USD/JPY (Medium Term) Buy USD/JPY at 96.50. Stop at 95.76. Profit targets at 97.59, 98.41.
USD/CHF (Medium Term) Wait until a new pattern emerges.
USD/CAD (Medium Term) Wait until a new pattern emerges.
AUD/USD (Medium Term) Wait until a new pattern emerges.
NZD/USD (Medium Term) Wait until a new pattern emerges.

Tuesday 7 April 2009

USD/JPY-market strategy can be a buy from the level 98.30

Technical oscillators supporting the bullish trend for the currency pair

To strengthen our analysis; we use many other indicators, starting with MACD (Moving Averages convergence divergence); we notice the MACD lines after a bullish crossover above the zero line. In order to find the power of the market, we use RSI (Relative Strength Index).With RSI; we can determine that the market is in a bullish direction.

EUR/USD-market strategy can be a sell from the level 1.3490$

Technical oscillators supporting the bearish trend for the currency pair

To strengthen our analysis; we use many other indicators, starting with MACD (Moving Averages convergence divergence); we notice the MACD lines after a bearish crossover above the zero line. In order to find the power of the market, we use RSI (Relative Strength Index).With RSI; we can determine that the market is in a bearish direction.

Wednesday 1 April 2009

trend remains down and rallies should be shorted for now on the EUR/USD and Gold

Yesterday saw a bit of recovery from Monday's selloffs, but the trend remains down and rallies should be shorted for now on the EUR/USD and Gold. The stock market situation is a bit more tricky,

personally im looking for a bit further of a selloff into stronger support, then a potentially large rally. Timing these perfectly is tough, but the swings are large enough where I think the best way I can trade these markets is with position trades scaling in and out with an overall bias, which is why my signals have shifted from more scalping advice to position trading and market direction advice. Yesterday, we saw the Japanese Tankan make a nice 50 pip move higher on the yen crosses when the number came in at decade lows, so I like the idea of looking to trade this number next month. AU Retail Sales got overshadowed by some back and forth rumormongering about the Obama administration and GM, but still managed about a 30 pip move with somewhat healthy retrace/reattempt type price action following the release. For Wednesday: