A big opportunity for a short is developing in stocks now (read below), and EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Gold and Silver should sell off as well in conjunction. Please watch the video for more on all of this. I recommend maintaining or entering position trades short on EUR/USD, Silver, and Gold while maintaining them on GBP/USD (entering now would require too wide a stop loss). EUR/USD should not exceed it's 1.4450 August highs, while Silver and Gold should not exceed they're $15.20 or $971 August highs. If any of the above start breaching those highs, we'll have to closely reconsider the position, which makes those regions good biasing areas for a stop loss. As far as profit targets are concerned, they're the same as when we entered these positions in early August... 1.3000 and lower on Euro, 1.5000 and lower on GBP, 700 and lower on Gold, and $8 and lower on Silver... but obviously those targets will take some time to develop and may be refined over time.
Stocks have finally done just barely enough to satisfy a topping out scenario and start to increase the odds that the big rally from the March lows is over and we have topped out, or will be topping out soon and heading to new lows (my estimate is 400 on the S&P 500). Right now, I think it's worth a modest swing trade short on stocks since the odds are the 1040ish high on the S&P will not be breached; however, until we manage to trade lower through 1016, we still could get more strength to new highs even if that outcome isn't currently the odds-on favorite. My suggestion is to dabble with a medium term short and pile on more of a position trade once 1016 support is violated on the S&P 500. We could get that break as early as Monday, but any time this week will be good enough to serve as more major confirmation of.
As far as news for Monday is concerned:
2100 Chinese Manufacturing PMI (53.3 last, no estimate) - This number has been steady in the low to mid 53's for awhile, so a pop out of that range may push risk appetite or risk aversion for a good swing trade as long as it doesn't disagree with the shorter term trend in place when the report comes out. I wouldn't expect a typical news spike, but overall pressure that should help with a swing trade.
If it comes out at 54 or higher, AUD/JPY should see buying pressure over several hours.
If it comes out at 52.9 or lower, AUD/JPY should see selling pressure over several hours.
0030 (Monday Night, Tuesday morning) - AU Interest Rate Decision (expected no change at 3.00%) - If there's a big surprise on the decision, there should be a big move, but more likely it will come out as expected and trade in line with whatever commentary the RBA offers up as a window into future decisions.
If it comes out at 3.25% or higher, AUD/USD should rally 80+ pips.
If it comes out at 2.75% or lower, AUD/USD should sell off 100+ pips.
For the rest of the week, I'm looking forward to trading:
Tuesday 9-1:
0030 Australian Interest Rate Statement
2100 Australian GDP q/q
Wednesday 9-2:
0815 US ADP Employment Change
1400 US FOMC Minutes
Thursday 9-3:
0430 UK Services PMI
0745 ECB Interest Rate Decision
0830 ECB's Trichet Speech
Friday 9-4:
0700 CAD Employment
0830 US Nonfarm Payrolls Employment Change
Monday 31 August 2009
Monday 24 August 2009
Trading signals for 24th august 2009 ->3 days
the outlook on the Euro and GBP in a bit of a pickle where I'm not sure if 1.4450 on the Euro will be breached before a turn lower or if we'll get that turn sooner. When I see something more clear for the short term there, I'll let you know in the daily signals, but I'm holding my longer term position trade short and fading on rallies for now. The basic gist is, the Euro and GBP should turn lower, it's just a matter of when, and from where? Hopefully soon!
Stocks definitely started their final rally leg a bit earlier than expected and that leg is well underway. We still could have quite a bit to go upwards before it's complete, but once it's over, we're going to have a VERY major reversal down to around 400 on the S&P. If you're a strickly long term player, you may want to start fading this rally to get in short. If you're playing the shorter term upside, the likely target range is 1050 to 1075 or so. Once we get up there we'll be able to better see if there's even more short term upside potential or if it's time to start loading up short for the short, medium and long run.
Gold and Silver are in a similar pickle along with the USD mixed pressures. The longer term trend is pretty clearly down, but this week could see a move higher before lower potentially. Once things clear up a bit on the short term I'll update that in a subsequent daily signal... but the 990 and 15.20 levels on Gold and Silver should not give way even if we do head higher first. I'm continuing to hold Silver and Gold long term short and I'm fading rallies on Silver.
For the nice short term news opportunities, we do have one possibility on Monday:
0830 CAD Retail Sales (headline) expected at 0.2% -- I think we should play this one safe and look for a 1.0% deviation to get a nicer move out of this indicator. Surprises less than that have been able to move USD/CAD about 20 pips, but not much more... so I'd prefer to trade something larger to make it worth our while.
If it comes out at 1.2% or higher, USD/CAD should sell off 30 pips.
If it comes out at -0.8% or lower, USD/CAD should rally 30 pips.
Stocks definitely started their final rally leg a bit earlier than expected and that leg is well underway. We still could have quite a bit to go upwards before it's complete, but once it's over, we're going to have a VERY major reversal down to around 400 on the S&P. If you're a strickly long term player, you may want to start fading this rally to get in short. If you're playing the shorter term upside, the likely target range is 1050 to 1075 or so. Once we get up there we'll be able to better see if there's even more short term upside potential or if it's time to start loading up short for the short, medium and long run.
Gold and Silver are in a similar pickle along with the USD mixed pressures. The longer term trend is pretty clearly down, but this week could see a move higher before lower potentially. Once things clear up a bit on the short term I'll update that in a subsequent daily signal... but the 990 and 15.20 levels on Gold and Silver should not give way even if we do head higher first. I'm continuing to hold Silver and Gold long term short and I'm fading rallies on Silver.
For the nice short term news opportunities, we do have one possibility on Monday:
0830 CAD Retail Sales (headline) expected at 0.2% -- I think we should play this one safe and look for a 1.0% deviation to get a nicer move out of this indicator. Surprises less than that have been able to move USD/CAD about 20 pips, but not much more... so I'd prefer to trade something larger to make it worth our while.
If it comes out at 1.2% or higher, USD/CAD should sell off 30 pips.
If it comes out at -0.8% or lower, USD/CAD should rally 30 pips.
Tuesday 4 August 2009
Forex trading signals 4th august 2009 for 5 days
Tonight's signal video is focused much more on the trends and medium to long term trading opportunities than the news since there isn't very reliable, tradable news on Tuesday. First off, if you got long on the EUR/USD from around 1.4050 or the GBP/USD from around 1.64-1.65 last week based on my recommendations, I think you should consider exiting now (1.44ish, 1.6930) or at least tighten up your stop losses to protect profits. This rally has hit the target areas I was looking for, and the next big long term overdue move south is either starting now, or starting soon. In the video, I discuss a position trade sell on EUR/USD from current levels (around 1.4380) with a stop threshold somewhere above the 1.4715 highs from December. Entering short now may be getting in a bit early (this rally might have another higher high or two left in it), but I feel it's a good time to start sticking my toe in the water for an initial short. The ultimate target on this is around 1.3000, but I highly recommend taking incremental profits along the way and talk more about that in the video.
In stocks, we also got that last pop higher to 1000 on the S&P 500 I called for earlier, so I've closed the last of my longs around 999 and have started to flip short. We're going to start a 1-3 week decline phase here soon, and we're likely either topping now close to 1000, or working towards a top soon somewhere between 1000 and 1015. Right now I'm thinking about 955 is a good downside target (since this selloff is unlikely to make new lows below 870), but I'll keep an eye on it and let you know if I think our target could be extended more towards 920, or has to be choked up more towards 970.
On Silver, we're now in that sweet spot target range that is a great price to initiate a position trade short if you're not already in. I'm personally in from $13.40 awhile back, but I've been using the volatility to work in and out portions of the position and average my entry price higher by reselling into this rally. The $14.30 to $14.60 area is a great place to add or start a short, and I don't really see Silver pushing to $15 or above on this leg, but anything's possible, especially if the Euro and/or stocks stubbornly extend their advances as well.
In news Monday, US ISM Manufacturing data came out much better than expected, hitting our buy EUR/JPY trigger and EUR/JPY managed to gain 70 pips in the first 15 minues, and 120 pips 2 hours after the report. The US news coming out on Tuesday at 0830 is very tricky and price action has been underwhelming, so I'm no longer recommending it for a trade. 1000 Pending Home Sales data is kind of a sucker trap of a trade, so I'm not going to recommend that one either. Wednesday has a ton good news to focus on, so tomorrow's signal will be focused less on trends, and much more on the news and short term opportunities they may bring about.
In stocks, we also got that last pop higher to 1000 on the S&P 500 I called for earlier, so I've closed the last of my longs around 999 and have started to flip short. We're going to start a 1-3 week decline phase here soon, and we're likely either topping now close to 1000, or working towards a top soon somewhere between 1000 and 1015. Right now I'm thinking about 955 is a good downside target (since this selloff is unlikely to make new lows below 870), but I'll keep an eye on it and let you know if I think our target could be extended more towards 920, or has to be choked up more towards 970.
On Silver, we're now in that sweet spot target range that is a great price to initiate a position trade short if you're not already in. I'm personally in from $13.40 awhile back, but I've been using the volatility to work in and out portions of the position and average my entry price higher by reselling into this rally. The $14.30 to $14.60 area is a great place to add or start a short, and I don't really see Silver pushing to $15 or above on this leg, but anything's possible, especially if the Euro and/or stocks stubbornly extend their advances as well.
In news Monday, US ISM Manufacturing data came out much better than expected, hitting our buy EUR/JPY trigger and EUR/JPY managed to gain 70 pips in the first 15 minues, and 120 pips 2 hours after the report. The US news coming out on Tuesday at 0830 is very tricky and price action has been underwhelming, so I'm no longer recommending it for a trade. 1000 Pending Home Sales data is kind of a sucker trap of a trade, so I'm not going to recommend that one either. Wednesday has a ton good news to focus on, so tomorrow's signal will be focused less on trends, and much more on the news and short term opportunities they may bring about.
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