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Dollar Holding the Line but What Can Turn it Around?
Wednesday, 02 December 2009 23:50 GMT | Written by John Kicklighter
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* Nov, 26 Dollar Marks a Critical Break Just as Liquidity Drops Off
* Nov, 19 How Much Longer Can the Dollar Rebuff a Renewed Plunge?
* Nov, 12 Dollar Testing 15-Month Lows as Investors Weigh in on Risk Appetite
* Nov, 05 The Fed Slowly Trims Stimulus but the Dollar is still Caught up in Risk
* Oct, 29 Can the Dollar's Burgeoning Strength Weather GDP and Risk Trends?
* Oct, 22 Dollar's Funding Currency Status will Maintain Risk Correlation
* Oct, 08 Dollar Looks to Rates for Short-Term Bounce in Long-Term Decline
* Oct, 14 How Long Will Dollar Take its Cues From the Dow and Risk Trends?
The dollar was on the verge of collapse last Wednesday – and a late session break seemed to push the currency over the edge. However, this market-defining move proved more a reflection of liquidity than a meaningful revival of a long-term bear trend. Heading into the thin liquidity conditions that plagued the markets into the second half of last week, leave the skeleton crew with a scenario where the benchmark currency was on the verge of a massive breakout was deemed too dangerous; and a concerted effort was made to defuse the situation by forcing a break in the direction with the least resistance (or fundamental meaning) – a bearish break.
12.02.2009_img.1
The Economy and the Credit Market
The dollar was on the verge of collapse last Wednesday – and a late session break seemed to push the currency over the edge. However, this market-defining move proved more a reflection of liquidity than a meaningful revival of a long-term bear trend. Heading into the thin liquidity conditions that plagued the markets into the second half of last week, leave the skeleton crew with a scenario where the benchmark currency was on the verge of a massive breakout was deemed too dangerous; and a concerted effort was made to defuse the situation by forcing a break in the direction with the least resistance (or fundamental meaning) – a bearish break. Any doubts that this was a pressure release were quickly snuffed out by a sharp reversal in the dollar that would later be supported by the threat of a sovereign default in Dubai. And, while the potential credit event wouldn’t pan out; the market’s dramatic flight to safety perhaps reflects the doubt that is exists beneath the surface of optimism and capital reinvestment. Fundamental activity aside, the dollar is essentially in the same spot this week that it left off on the previous one. Today’s Fed Beige book reminds us that the US economy is performing relatively well compared its peers. Also, interest rate forecasts still put the Fed ahead of its ECB and BoE counterparts. The weight for the dollar therefore is still in risk appetite. Will sentiment deflate? Will the dollar’s funding currency status change? Will pressure for the Fed to deflate asset bubbles work? These are the questions to ask. 12.02.2009_img.2
Thursday 3 December 2009
Monday 21 September 2009
Forex Trading Signals for 21-09-2009 --->3 days
There seems to be a notable pullback on Gold, and Silver possibly functioning as a leading indicator of USD strength, and if you guys remember, this 1.4700 area was the level I've eyeing for quite some time to be the potential top of this EUR/USD rally. Short term, I think we could get action in either direction here on Monday and Tuesday, but long term the big opportunity is short. I'm not quite ready to pull the trigger and shove in a huge trade short just yet because we may have a final push to new highs here in the next day or two.
As far as the GBP is concerned, let me remind you guys of the new stance from Wednesday's Forex Trading Signal 9-16-2009:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sir Pipsalot
Last night we also had a very big tape bomb from the Bank of England's Governor King. In testimony he basically said they're considering cutting interest rates which was a big surprise to the market and has lead to considerable GBP weakness. I anticipate further gains in EUR/GBP of several hundred pips over the coming weeks and months as the GBP weakens. It also may be a good chance to get in early on the big USD turn by getting in short GBP/USD while we wait on EUR/USD. I think going long EUR/GBP (currently around 0.8910) and/or short GBP/USD (currently around 1.6460) make good sense for position trades, but I'm probably going to wait a bit on the GBP/USD short and wait until I enter EUR/USD sometime in the next week or so.
So far the long on EUR/GBP has been good for about 140 pips, and it's halfway to it's ultimate 0.9200 target. If you had gotten short on the GBP/USD (I did not) it's up 260 pips. My plan was to wait until we're ready to short EUR/USD to also short GBP/USD, and if we do get an ending rally on EUR/USD, that may float up GBP/USD enough to short it from a higher level than the current 1.6200. However, the reason I'm short term neutral on USD in general is that we may have topped out already and it's all downhill from here. With some key confirmations, I won't mind chasing it on the way down a bit.
On Silver and Gold, as I said we've had some notable pullbacks, and at this point, there's some key question marks. Is this a decent retracement before the final push higher, or is it the start of the downward reversal we've been waiting for? We'll have to wait at least another day to know for sure, but I'm holding the 2nd half of my long from $976 with a break even stop and a $1035 take profit.
On stocks, as with the other markets, we may have topped out, but it's a bit more likely there that we have another rally leg yet to go. Often times stocks will peak out a bit later than the correllating currencies, so I'm not in a rush to get back short on stocks unless we break down through 1035 on the S&P.
FOREX TRADING MISTAKES
There seems to be a notable pullback on Gold, and Silver possibly functioning as a leading indicator of USD strength, and if you guys remember, this 1.4700 area was the level I've eyeing for quite some time to be the potential top of this EUR/USD rally. Short term, I think we could get action in either direction here on Monday and Tuesday, but long term the big opportunity is short. I'm not quite ready to pull the trigger and shove in a huge trade short just yet because we may have a final push to new highs here in the next day or two.
As far as the GBP is concerned, let me remind you guys of the new stance from Wednesday's Forex Trading Signal 9-16-2009:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sir Pipsalot
Last night we also had a very big tape bomb from the Bank of England's Governor King. In testimony he basically said they're considering cutting interest rates which was a big surprise to the market and has lead to considerable GBP weakness. I anticipate further gains in EUR/GBP of several hundred pips over the coming weeks and months as the GBP weakens. It also may be a good chance to get in early on the big USD turn by getting in short GBP/USD while we wait on EUR/USD. I think going long EUR/GBP (currently around 0.8910) and/or short GBP/USD (currently around 1.6460) make good sense for position trades, but I'm probably going to wait a bit on the GBP/USD short and wait until I enter EUR/USD sometime in the next week or so.
So far the long on EUR/GBP has been good for about 140 pips, and it's halfway to it's ultimate 0.9200 target. If you had gotten short on the GBP/USD (I did not) it's up 260 pips. My plan was to wait until we're ready to short EUR/USD to also short GBP/USD, and if we do get an ending rally on EUR/USD, that may float up GBP/USD enough to short it from a higher level than the current 1.6200. However, the reason I'm short term neutral on USD in general is that we may have topped out already and it's all downhill from here. With some key confirmations, I won't mind chasing it on the way down a bit.
On Silver and Gold, as I said we've had some notable pullbacks, and at this point, there's some key question marks. Is this a decent retracement before the final push higher, or is it the start of the downward reversal we've been waiting for? We'll have to wait at least another day to know for sure, but I'm holding the 2nd half of my long from $976 with a break even stop and a $1035 take profit.
On stocks, as with the other markets, we may have topped out, but it's a bit more likely there that we have another rally leg yet to go. Often times stocks will peak out a bit later than the correllating currencies, so I'm not in a rush to get back short on stocks unless we break down through 1035 on the S&P.
FOREX TRADING MISTAKES
Thursday 17 September 2009
Forex and stock signals 17-09-2009 >5 days
the EUR/USD is in wave 3 up and will need to form a clear 5 waves before it tops out. As far as I can tell, wave 3 is either just starting to top out around this 1.4720 resistance, or it has a bit more to go before a period of wave 4 retracement/consolidation comes in and the following final wave 5 thrust higher. As we saw back in December, it's quite possible we will see a very strong spike up on the EUR/USD to cap off the end of the move, so instead of focusing on a specific level to get short the EUR/USD, I recommend waiting for an ending pattern to emerge and time the short when a clear potential top is in place. In the meantime, shorter term longs on the EUR/USD could still see some upside, but they're getting riskier and riskier. If we get a decent dip today (as long as 1.4560 holds), that would be a risky but good buying opportunity to make some pips, especially if the final wave 5 is a sharp blowoff rally like it was in December.
Keep in mind though guys that the big money will be on the short side at some point soon. On the EUR/USD it looks like we are topping off Primary wave 2, intermediate C, minor 5, minute wave 5, and we're now working in the shaky waters of the minuette degree 3-4-5 finish to top off all of those degrees and enter a primary wave turn which mathematically should see the EUR/USD sell off harder than it did from mid 2008 to early 2009 which means something below 1.1300 on the Euro if it tops out around 1.4800.
The EUR/GBP long idea I mentioned yesterday is up slightly and likely consolidating a bit before making another sharp rise. I recommend getting long or holding long on EUR/GBP looking for 0.9200. A stop loss somewhere between 0.8800 and 0.8850 seems appropriate for the trade. As far as shorting GBP/USD is concerned, you could try to get in early here, but I'd rather wait until the USD as a whole bottoms out and ride the double momentum of GBP weakness and USD strength. Of course I'll let you know when I jump in long USD.
Gold continues to push to new highs, now around $1019. As the Euro works to a top, Gold should push higher but top out around the same time the Euro does give or take a few days. Until then, I'm holding long but $1035 should be enough for me to get out with decent profits and get neutral to await the turn.
Stocks have continued their terminal climb and I have taken a bit more profits around the close today from my 1029 swing trade long on stocks. Now I'm only in 1/4 of that trade. It looks like the S&P 500 could have enough mometum to hit 1100. Right now the last of the bears and cautious institutional money that has sat out most of this rally is finally, frustratingly getting pressured into buying this market for fear of missing out. This is very typical of a bear market rally to fool the common investors into finally getting long at the top before the next plunge. Once the dumb money buying pressure wears off, we will likely form a significant top and start a 60-70% decline over the course of a year or so. Trying to time this top hasn't been perfect, but bear market rallies are typically hard to time the end of precisely.
In economic news Wednesday, unfortunately all the data we were watching came out too close to expected to get much market reaction. In news Thursday:
0430 UK Retail Sales m/m (0.1% expected) - Sometimes this indicator can spark a very large move on GBP/USD, and other times it's a bit more subdued. One common feature either way though is that the move in line with the number tends to max out around 40-50 minutes after the release (around 05:10 TO 05:20 EST). If the move in the first 1-2 minutes is muted and it only moves about 30 pips, then I would wait for a nice deep retracement to get in the direction of the surprise. If the move in the first 1-2 minutes is a very sharp 50 pips or more, then a steep retracement may not happen and you might want to consider getting in on a slight retracement or just chasing it down and following the momentum.
If it comes out at 0.6% or higher, the GBP/USD should rally 40-50+ pips.
If it comes otu at -0.4% or lower, the GBP/USD should fall 40-50+ pips.
0830 US Housing Starts (598K expected) - This number has not had a huge reaction in currencies lately, but it does help drive sentiment and pressure from a more gradual perspective. This number should help pressure EUR/USD, USD/JPY and EUR/JPY up slowly on a good number, and down slowly on a bad number. I think a good way to play this is to let the first 1-5 minutes of volatility die down so you can get in closer to prerelease, then swing trade one of those pairs in the direction of the number (if the trigger is hit) and hold it for 45-90 minutes. As stocks get ready to open around 0930, the housing numbers will likely lead to a premarket move, or a move shortly after the open which is inidicative of a shift in risk appetite and will be reflected in most or all of those currency pairs. Also, make sure the building permits number comes out in the same direction (expected at 583K).
If the number comes out at 648K or higher, EUR/JPY should gradually rally 50-100 pips.
If the number comes out at 548K or lower, EUR/JPY should gradually fall 50-100 pips.
Keep in mind though guys that the big money will be on the short side at some point soon. On the EUR/USD it looks like we are topping off Primary wave 2, intermediate C, minor 5, minute wave 5, and we're now working in the shaky waters of the minuette degree 3-4-5 finish to top off all of those degrees and enter a primary wave turn which mathematically should see the EUR/USD sell off harder than it did from mid 2008 to early 2009 which means something below 1.1300 on the Euro if it tops out around 1.4800.
The EUR/GBP long idea I mentioned yesterday is up slightly and likely consolidating a bit before making another sharp rise. I recommend getting long or holding long on EUR/GBP looking for 0.9200. A stop loss somewhere between 0.8800 and 0.8850 seems appropriate for the trade. As far as shorting GBP/USD is concerned, you could try to get in early here, but I'd rather wait until the USD as a whole bottoms out and ride the double momentum of GBP weakness and USD strength. Of course I'll let you know when I jump in long USD.
Gold continues to push to new highs, now around $1019. As the Euro works to a top, Gold should push higher but top out around the same time the Euro does give or take a few days. Until then, I'm holding long but $1035 should be enough for me to get out with decent profits and get neutral to await the turn.
Stocks have continued their terminal climb and I have taken a bit more profits around the close today from my 1029 swing trade long on stocks. Now I'm only in 1/4 of that trade. It looks like the S&P 500 could have enough mometum to hit 1100. Right now the last of the bears and cautious institutional money that has sat out most of this rally is finally, frustratingly getting pressured into buying this market for fear of missing out. This is very typical of a bear market rally to fool the common investors into finally getting long at the top before the next plunge. Once the dumb money buying pressure wears off, we will likely form a significant top and start a 60-70% decline over the course of a year or so. Trying to time this top hasn't been perfect, but bear market rallies are typically hard to time the end of precisely.
In economic news Wednesday, unfortunately all the data we were watching came out too close to expected to get much market reaction. In news Thursday:
0430 UK Retail Sales m/m (0.1% expected) - Sometimes this indicator can spark a very large move on GBP/USD, and other times it's a bit more subdued. One common feature either way though is that the move in line with the number tends to max out around 40-50 minutes after the release (around 05:10 TO 05:20 EST). If the move in the first 1-2 minutes is muted and it only moves about 30 pips, then I would wait for a nice deep retracement to get in the direction of the surprise. If the move in the first 1-2 minutes is a very sharp 50 pips or more, then a steep retracement may not happen and you might want to consider getting in on a slight retracement or just chasing it down and following the momentum.
If it comes out at 0.6% or higher, the GBP/USD should rally 40-50+ pips.
If it comes otu at -0.4% or lower, the GBP/USD should fall 40-50+ pips.
0830 US Housing Starts (598K expected) - This number has not had a huge reaction in currencies lately, but it does help drive sentiment and pressure from a more gradual perspective. This number should help pressure EUR/USD, USD/JPY and EUR/JPY up slowly on a good number, and down slowly on a bad number. I think a good way to play this is to let the first 1-5 minutes of volatility die down so you can get in closer to prerelease, then swing trade one of those pairs in the direction of the number (if the trigger is hit) and hold it for 45-90 minutes. As stocks get ready to open around 0930, the housing numbers will likely lead to a premarket move, or a move shortly after the open which is inidicative of a shift in risk appetite and will be reflected in most or all of those currency pairs. Also, make sure the building permits number comes out in the same direction (expected at 583K).
If the number comes out at 648K or higher, EUR/JPY should gradually rally 50-100 pips.
If the number comes out at 548K or lower, EUR/JPY should gradually fall 50-100 pips.
Wednesday 2 September 2009
FOREX TRADING SIGNALS 9-2-2009
yesterday I said "The EUR/USD remains somewhat on the edge here where much more strength will turn things short term bullish, but recent advances have been anemic enough to make it look more like topping action than a rally in the works. Usually things look tough before a turn though, so we'll continue to maintain our short bias and position trade short on EUR/USD as long as 1.4450 stays intact." Our patience and diligence has proven fruitful and now that stocks have confirmed a more major turn, that gives the EUR/USD and GBP/USD a lot more fuel to complete their turns into a downtrend that started back in early August when I called those trades here. Like stocks though, their short term declines may hit a bit of a speedbump and some consolidation or short term bounciness may occur. Similar to stocks, I like the idea of a swing trade sell at higher prices on the EUR/USD around 1.4300 with a 50-100 pip SL. The idea on EU and GU now is to get short on good bounces to get in line with the larger trend.
Silver and gold are still holding up decently well, but as stocks start rolling over further, and the USD picks up even more steam, the metals will see some extensive downside. The key levels from the weekly signal remain unchanged and both are great sells at their current levels.
In news Tuesday, we saw a lot of positive news just get slammed... from German Retail Sales, to US ISM and Pending Home Sales... good news could only manage a meager spike up and subsequently got hammered on a reversal down. Fortunately, given the low liquidity right now, I kind of saw this potential coming and recommended skipping these trades. The one I did want to trade, AU GDP actually did pretty decent all things considered and managed 44 pips up over 25 minutes after hitting our buy trigger. In news Wednesday:
0815 US ADP Employment Change (-250K expected) - This one is usually good for a modest move on USD/JPY, and if the surprise is very large, it could get a bit of a short term trend going.
If it comes out at -100K or higher, USD/JPY should rally 40-50 pips
If it comes out at -180K or higher, USD/JPY should rally 30 pips
If it comes out at -320K or lower, USD/JPY should fall 30 pips
If it comes otu at -400K or lower, USD/JPY should fall 40-50 pips
1400 US FOMC Minutes - Not much we can forecast here from an economic number standpoint, but obviously the market will be looking for insight into the FOMC's thinking and rationale in terms of when they're going to unwind their special programs, and why they slowed their rate of Treasury purchases. If there's some clear desire present to move forward (albeit slowly) with their exit strategy, and their slowing of Treasury purchases is a first step in that direction, it would be a USD positive.
**TIP**NEW INVESTMENT VEHICLE (.COM DOMAIN NAMES ) checkout the news at THE DOMAIN APPRAISERS>
Silver and gold are still holding up decently well, but as stocks start rolling over further, and the USD picks up even more steam, the metals will see some extensive downside. The key levels from the weekly signal remain unchanged and both are great sells at their current levels.
In news Tuesday, we saw a lot of positive news just get slammed... from German Retail Sales, to US ISM and Pending Home Sales... good news could only manage a meager spike up and subsequently got hammered on a reversal down. Fortunately, given the low liquidity right now, I kind of saw this potential coming and recommended skipping these trades. The one I did want to trade, AU GDP actually did pretty decent all things considered and managed 44 pips up over 25 minutes after hitting our buy trigger. In news Wednesday:
0815 US ADP Employment Change (-250K expected) - This one is usually good for a modest move on USD/JPY, and if the surprise is very large, it could get a bit of a short term trend going.
If it comes out at -100K or higher, USD/JPY should rally 40-50 pips
If it comes out at -180K or higher, USD/JPY should rally 30 pips
If it comes out at -320K or lower, USD/JPY should fall 30 pips
If it comes otu at -400K or lower, USD/JPY should fall 40-50 pips
1400 US FOMC Minutes - Not much we can forecast here from an economic number standpoint, but obviously the market will be looking for insight into the FOMC's thinking and rationale in terms of when they're going to unwind their special programs, and why they slowed their rate of Treasury purchases. If there's some clear desire present to move forward (albeit slowly) with their exit strategy, and their slowing of Treasury purchases is a first step in that direction, it would be a USD positive.
**TIP**NEW INVESTMENT VEHICLE (.COM DOMAIN NAMES ) checkout the news at THE DOMAIN APPRAISERS>
Monday 31 August 2009
Weekly Outlook Video Signal for 8-31 to 9-4
A big opportunity for a short is developing in stocks now (read below), and EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Gold and Silver should sell off as well in conjunction. Please watch the video for more on all of this. I recommend maintaining or entering position trades short on EUR/USD, Silver, and Gold while maintaining them on GBP/USD (entering now would require too wide a stop loss). EUR/USD should not exceed it's 1.4450 August highs, while Silver and Gold should not exceed they're $15.20 or $971 August highs. If any of the above start breaching those highs, we'll have to closely reconsider the position, which makes those regions good biasing areas for a stop loss. As far as profit targets are concerned, they're the same as when we entered these positions in early August... 1.3000 and lower on Euro, 1.5000 and lower on GBP, 700 and lower on Gold, and $8 and lower on Silver... but obviously those targets will take some time to develop and may be refined over time.
Stocks have finally done just barely enough to satisfy a topping out scenario and start to increase the odds that the big rally from the March lows is over and we have topped out, or will be topping out soon and heading to new lows (my estimate is 400 on the S&P 500). Right now, I think it's worth a modest swing trade short on stocks since the odds are the 1040ish high on the S&P will not be breached; however, until we manage to trade lower through 1016, we still could get more strength to new highs even if that outcome isn't currently the odds-on favorite. My suggestion is to dabble with a medium term short and pile on more of a position trade once 1016 support is violated on the S&P 500. We could get that break as early as Monday, but any time this week will be good enough to serve as more major confirmation of.
As far as news for Monday is concerned:
2100 Chinese Manufacturing PMI (53.3 last, no estimate) - This number has been steady in the low to mid 53's for awhile, so a pop out of that range may push risk appetite or risk aversion for a good swing trade as long as it doesn't disagree with the shorter term trend in place when the report comes out. I wouldn't expect a typical news spike, but overall pressure that should help with a swing trade.
If it comes out at 54 or higher, AUD/JPY should see buying pressure over several hours.
If it comes out at 52.9 or lower, AUD/JPY should see selling pressure over several hours.
0030 (Monday Night, Tuesday morning) - AU Interest Rate Decision (expected no change at 3.00%) - If there's a big surprise on the decision, there should be a big move, but more likely it will come out as expected and trade in line with whatever commentary the RBA offers up as a window into future decisions.
If it comes out at 3.25% or higher, AUD/USD should rally 80+ pips.
If it comes out at 2.75% or lower, AUD/USD should sell off 100+ pips.
For the rest of the week, I'm looking forward to trading:
Tuesday 9-1:
0030 Australian Interest Rate Statement
2100 Australian GDP q/q
Wednesday 9-2:
0815 US ADP Employment Change
1400 US FOMC Minutes
Thursday 9-3:
0430 UK Services PMI
0745 ECB Interest Rate Decision
0830 ECB's Trichet Speech
Friday 9-4:
0700 CAD Employment
0830 US Nonfarm Payrolls Employment Change
Stocks have finally done just barely enough to satisfy a topping out scenario and start to increase the odds that the big rally from the March lows is over and we have topped out, or will be topping out soon and heading to new lows (my estimate is 400 on the S&P 500). Right now, I think it's worth a modest swing trade short on stocks since the odds are the 1040ish high on the S&P will not be breached; however, until we manage to trade lower through 1016, we still could get more strength to new highs even if that outcome isn't currently the odds-on favorite. My suggestion is to dabble with a medium term short and pile on more of a position trade once 1016 support is violated on the S&P 500. We could get that break as early as Monday, but any time this week will be good enough to serve as more major confirmation of.
As far as news for Monday is concerned:
2100 Chinese Manufacturing PMI (53.3 last, no estimate) - This number has been steady in the low to mid 53's for awhile, so a pop out of that range may push risk appetite or risk aversion for a good swing trade as long as it doesn't disagree with the shorter term trend in place when the report comes out. I wouldn't expect a typical news spike, but overall pressure that should help with a swing trade.
If it comes out at 54 or higher, AUD/JPY should see buying pressure over several hours.
If it comes out at 52.9 or lower, AUD/JPY should see selling pressure over several hours.
0030 (Monday Night, Tuesday morning) - AU Interest Rate Decision (expected no change at 3.00%) - If there's a big surprise on the decision, there should be a big move, but more likely it will come out as expected and trade in line with whatever commentary the RBA offers up as a window into future decisions.
If it comes out at 3.25% or higher, AUD/USD should rally 80+ pips.
If it comes out at 2.75% or lower, AUD/USD should sell off 100+ pips.
For the rest of the week, I'm looking forward to trading:
Tuesday 9-1:
0030 Australian Interest Rate Statement
2100 Australian GDP q/q
Wednesday 9-2:
0815 US ADP Employment Change
1400 US FOMC Minutes
Thursday 9-3:
0430 UK Services PMI
0745 ECB Interest Rate Decision
0830 ECB's Trichet Speech
Friday 9-4:
0700 CAD Employment
0830 US Nonfarm Payrolls Employment Change
Monday 24 August 2009
Trading signals for 24th august 2009 ->3 days
the outlook on the Euro and GBP in a bit of a pickle where I'm not sure if 1.4450 on the Euro will be breached before a turn lower or if we'll get that turn sooner. When I see something more clear for the short term there, I'll let you know in the daily signals, but I'm holding my longer term position trade short and fading on rallies for now. The basic gist is, the Euro and GBP should turn lower, it's just a matter of when, and from where? Hopefully soon!
Stocks definitely started their final rally leg a bit earlier than expected and that leg is well underway. We still could have quite a bit to go upwards before it's complete, but once it's over, we're going to have a VERY major reversal down to around 400 on the S&P. If you're a strickly long term player, you may want to start fading this rally to get in short. If you're playing the shorter term upside, the likely target range is 1050 to 1075 or so. Once we get up there we'll be able to better see if there's even more short term upside potential or if it's time to start loading up short for the short, medium and long run.
Gold and Silver are in a similar pickle along with the USD mixed pressures. The longer term trend is pretty clearly down, but this week could see a move higher before lower potentially. Once things clear up a bit on the short term I'll update that in a subsequent daily signal... but the 990 and 15.20 levels on Gold and Silver should not give way even if we do head higher first. I'm continuing to hold Silver and Gold long term short and I'm fading rallies on Silver.
For the nice short term news opportunities, we do have one possibility on Monday:
0830 CAD Retail Sales (headline) expected at 0.2% -- I think we should play this one safe and look for a 1.0% deviation to get a nicer move out of this indicator. Surprises less than that have been able to move USD/CAD about 20 pips, but not much more... so I'd prefer to trade something larger to make it worth our while.
If it comes out at 1.2% or higher, USD/CAD should sell off 30 pips.
If it comes out at -0.8% or lower, USD/CAD should rally 30 pips.
Stocks definitely started their final rally leg a bit earlier than expected and that leg is well underway. We still could have quite a bit to go upwards before it's complete, but once it's over, we're going to have a VERY major reversal down to around 400 on the S&P. If you're a strickly long term player, you may want to start fading this rally to get in short. If you're playing the shorter term upside, the likely target range is 1050 to 1075 or so. Once we get up there we'll be able to better see if there's even more short term upside potential or if it's time to start loading up short for the short, medium and long run.
Gold and Silver are in a similar pickle along with the USD mixed pressures. The longer term trend is pretty clearly down, but this week could see a move higher before lower potentially. Once things clear up a bit on the short term I'll update that in a subsequent daily signal... but the 990 and 15.20 levels on Gold and Silver should not give way even if we do head higher first. I'm continuing to hold Silver and Gold long term short and I'm fading rallies on Silver.
For the nice short term news opportunities, we do have one possibility on Monday:
0830 CAD Retail Sales (headline) expected at 0.2% -- I think we should play this one safe and look for a 1.0% deviation to get a nicer move out of this indicator. Surprises less than that have been able to move USD/CAD about 20 pips, but not much more... so I'd prefer to trade something larger to make it worth our while.
If it comes out at 1.2% or higher, USD/CAD should sell off 30 pips.
If it comes out at -0.8% or lower, USD/CAD should rally 30 pips.
Tuesday 4 August 2009
Forex trading signals 4th august 2009 for 5 days
Tonight's signal video is focused much more on the trends and medium to long term trading opportunities than the news since there isn't very reliable, tradable news on Tuesday. First off, if you got long on the EUR/USD from around 1.4050 or the GBP/USD from around 1.64-1.65 last week based on my recommendations, I think you should consider exiting now (1.44ish, 1.6930) or at least tighten up your stop losses to protect profits. This rally has hit the target areas I was looking for, and the next big long term overdue move south is either starting now, or starting soon. In the video, I discuss a position trade sell on EUR/USD from current levels (around 1.4380) with a stop threshold somewhere above the 1.4715 highs from December. Entering short now may be getting in a bit early (this rally might have another higher high or two left in it), but I feel it's a good time to start sticking my toe in the water for an initial short. The ultimate target on this is around 1.3000, but I highly recommend taking incremental profits along the way and talk more about that in the video.
In stocks, we also got that last pop higher to 1000 on the S&P 500 I called for earlier, so I've closed the last of my longs around 999 and have started to flip short. We're going to start a 1-3 week decline phase here soon, and we're likely either topping now close to 1000, or working towards a top soon somewhere between 1000 and 1015. Right now I'm thinking about 955 is a good downside target (since this selloff is unlikely to make new lows below 870), but I'll keep an eye on it and let you know if I think our target could be extended more towards 920, or has to be choked up more towards 970.
On Silver, we're now in that sweet spot target range that is a great price to initiate a position trade short if you're not already in. I'm personally in from $13.40 awhile back, but I've been using the volatility to work in and out portions of the position and average my entry price higher by reselling into this rally. The $14.30 to $14.60 area is a great place to add or start a short, and I don't really see Silver pushing to $15 or above on this leg, but anything's possible, especially if the Euro and/or stocks stubbornly extend their advances as well.
In news Monday, US ISM Manufacturing data came out much better than expected, hitting our buy EUR/JPY trigger and EUR/JPY managed to gain 70 pips in the first 15 minues, and 120 pips 2 hours after the report. The US news coming out on Tuesday at 0830 is very tricky and price action has been underwhelming, so I'm no longer recommending it for a trade. 1000 Pending Home Sales data is kind of a sucker trap of a trade, so I'm not going to recommend that one either. Wednesday has a ton good news to focus on, so tomorrow's signal will be focused less on trends, and much more on the news and short term opportunities they may bring about.
In stocks, we also got that last pop higher to 1000 on the S&P 500 I called for earlier, so I've closed the last of my longs around 999 and have started to flip short. We're going to start a 1-3 week decline phase here soon, and we're likely either topping now close to 1000, or working towards a top soon somewhere between 1000 and 1015. Right now I'm thinking about 955 is a good downside target (since this selloff is unlikely to make new lows below 870), but I'll keep an eye on it and let you know if I think our target could be extended more towards 920, or has to be choked up more towards 970.
On Silver, we're now in that sweet spot target range that is a great price to initiate a position trade short if you're not already in. I'm personally in from $13.40 awhile back, but I've been using the volatility to work in and out portions of the position and average my entry price higher by reselling into this rally. The $14.30 to $14.60 area is a great place to add or start a short, and I don't really see Silver pushing to $15 or above on this leg, but anything's possible, especially if the Euro and/or stocks stubbornly extend their advances as well.
In news Monday, US ISM Manufacturing data came out much better than expected, hitting our buy EUR/JPY trigger and EUR/JPY managed to gain 70 pips in the first 15 minues, and 120 pips 2 hours after the report. The US news coming out on Tuesday at 0830 is very tricky and price action has been underwhelming, so I'm no longer recommending it for a trade. 1000 Pending Home Sales data is kind of a sucker trap of a trade, so I'm not going to recommend that one either. Wednesday has a ton good news to focus on, so tomorrow's signal will be focused less on trends, and much more on the news and short term opportunities they may bring about.
Thursday 2 July 2009
FROEX TRADING SIGNALS 02-07-2009 > 7 DAYS
EUR/USD and GBP/USD to shift our stance from very bearish, to on the fence bearish and now to neutral. The odds have definitely increased that we're going to head to higher highs before the next major, major selloff from a long term perspective, so if you've been short on a position trade like I was and you're still in, I recommend closing it out and taking a wait and see approach from the sidelines. From a swing trading perspective, a lot of potential exists to grab pieces of the volatility though in either direction. Short term, the low ADP number yesterday may help spark some risk aversion selling in EU and GU during today's European session in advance of US Jobs data
Fortunately though, the downside potential for Gold looks a bit more clear. We may retrace a little higher toward the 960 area before the next big selloff, but it's not necessary. One thing I look at a bit more closely in the video is that Silver is probably a better long term short than gold given the kind of market action we're looking for. A run down to 700 on gold would probably force silver to $8 or $7 and have much cleaner price action. Right now, silver is even near a head and shoulders neckline on the daily with a break of 13.45 signaling the next wave of downside may be commencing.
Stocks may be rounding off the top of a right shoulder as we speak. Also, some reliable newsletters and analysts I follow are pointing towards diverging signals across different indexes and the VIX as a good sign of a short term top right about now. Sounds like we're either starting or about to start another A-B-C or 1-2-3 decline (whichever your naming preference) to the 800-850 area. I recommend getting short now on S&P 500 futures (around 917 as I write), buying SDS (around 54.75 as I write), or buying August or September 90 or 92 put option contracts on the SPY. I'll keep you guys up to date on this day to day as it develops, but as long as we stay below the 955 highs, I like the trade.
Thusday's news seems very seductive getting Trichet's speech and Nonfarm Payrolls at the same time, but usually when a lot of news comes out all at once, big traders just kind of stay out of the mess and prices get manipulated around by short term speculators and dealers. I expect some brutal fakeout-ish price action, but that could take the form of a trend as well.
0745 ECB Interest Rate Decision (expected no change at 1.00%) - Very unlikely we'll see a move here, but if there is, it will be big.
If there is any hike, EUR/USD will rise by 100 pips or more quickly
If there is any cut, EUR/USD will sell off by 70 pips or more quickly
0830 US Nonfarm Payrolls Employment Change (-365K expected) & Unemployment Rate (9.6% expected) - Yesterday's somewhat low ADP number will have markets looking for a bit of bad news in the form of a revision down to last month's NFP, or a low number on this month's number. As I discuss in the video, I expect a lot of price manipulation and WTF kind of stuff on this one, so look out. The revision (if 70K or more) may prove to be even more important than this month's number.
If Unemployment Rate comes out at 9.8% or higher, and Employment data is lower than expected, GBP/JPY should sell off 80 pips.
If NFP comes out at -299 or higher without a bad revision to last month's data, GBP/JPY should rally 60 pips.
If NFP comes out at -500 or lower without a good revision to last month's data, GBP/JPY should sell off 60 pips.
0830-0840 start time for Trichet's post interest rate decision speech - Look out for this as it will likely last about 90 minutes with the Q&A to spark some potential volatility on the Euro. If something big drops, it will also affect the USD indirectly.
Fortunately though, the downside potential for Gold looks a bit more clear. We may retrace a little higher toward the 960 area before the next big selloff, but it's not necessary. One thing I look at a bit more closely in the video is that Silver is probably a better long term short than gold given the kind of market action we're looking for. A run down to 700 on gold would probably force silver to $8 or $7 and have much cleaner price action. Right now, silver is even near a head and shoulders neckline on the daily with a break of 13.45 signaling the next wave of downside may be commencing.
Stocks may be rounding off the top of a right shoulder as we speak. Also, some reliable newsletters and analysts I follow are pointing towards diverging signals across different indexes and the VIX as a good sign of a short term top right about now. Sounds like we're either starting or about to start another A-B-C or 1-2-3 decline (whichever your naming preference) to the 800-850 area. I recommend getting short now on S&P 500 futures (around 917 as I write), buying SDS (around 54.75 as I write), or buying August or September 90 or 92 put option contracts on the SPY. I'll keep you guys up to date on this day to day as it develops, but as long as we stay below the 955 highs, I like the trade.
Thusday's news seems very seductive getting Trichet's speech and Nonfarm Payrolls at the same time, but usually when a lot of news comes out all at once, big traders just kind of stay out of the mess and prices get manipulated around by short term speculators and dealers. I expect some brutal fakeout-ish price action, but that could take the form of a trend as well.
0745 ECB Interest Rate Decision (expected no change at 1.00%) - Very unlikely we'll see a move here, but if there is, it will be big.
If there is any hike, EUR/USD will rise by 100 pips or more quickly
If there is any cut, EUR/USD will sell off by 70 pips or more quickly
0830 US Nonfarm Payrolls Employment Change (-365K expected) & Unemployment Rate (9.6% expected) - Yesterday's somewhat low ADP number will have markets looking for a bit of bad news in the form of a revision down to last month's NFP, or a low number on this month's number. As I discuss in the video, I expect a lot of price manipulation and WTF kind of stuff on this one, so look out. The revision (if 70K or more) may prove to be even more important than this month's number.
If Unemployment Rate comes out at 9.8% or higher, and Employment data is lower than expected, GBP/JPY should sell off 80 pips.
If NFP comes out at -299 or higher without a bad revision to last month's data, GBP/JPY should rally 60 pips.
If NFP comes out at -500 or lower without a good revision to last month's data, GBP/JPY should sell off 60 pips.
0830-0840 start time for Trichet's post interest rate decision speech - Look out for this as it will likely last about 90 minutes with the Q&A to spark some potential volatility on the Euro. If something big drops, it will also affect the USD indirectly.
Thursday 25 June 2009
FOREX SIGNALS 25-06-2009
EUR/USD paid off nicely as we sold off from around 1.4100 to 1.3900 in the post FOMC lows. I'd say as long as Wednesday's highs hold, any other decent rally attempts should be shorted on EUR/USD and any position trades short should be fine. The FOMC Statement today wasn't groundbreaking, but the fact that they did not expand their quantitative easing in any way was USD strengthening, and in my opinion, their statement was a bit more pessimistic than the market was looking for. Based on this, we managed to nab 40+ pips on a scalp, but I don't think there was a big enough surprise on the statement to warrant any modifications to our long term view. Stocks may float up a bit above Wednesday's highs, but as long as they don't surge through 917, the short side should be rewarding. No change on our long term gold outlook... look for lower prices over time. We're looking for stronger USD for sure, but in recent markets, it's been better to short pairs like EU and GU on big bounces for medium to long term trades, and chasing quick momentum is really only ok for scalps. Also, if EUR/CHF works back down to the 1.5000-1.5100 range again, it could be worth a nice buy as more intervention or the anticipation of intervention steps in to send it upwards. For news Thursday:
0830 US GDP 1Q Final Annualized (-5.7% expected) - Usually the final revision to GDP is the least important and deemed less significant by the markets; however, it is still a GDP release, and it should have an impact if there's a big surprise. Since this is a final revision, we'll need a decent 0.5% deviation to make it reliably worth trading. The likelihood of hitting that trigger is somewhat small historically, but it's possible given all the unusual complexity to the data from the first quarter.
If it comes out at -5.2% or higher, EUR/JPY should rally 50 pips.
If it comes out at -6.2% or lower, EUR/JPY shoudl sell off 50 pips.
1845 NZ GDP q/q (-0.7% expected) - This should be an ok trade as long as it hits a 0.3% deviation. If we get a smaller 0.2% away from expectations, it might be ok if the y/y (expected at -2.3%) difference is decent also, but it's not quite as reliable.
If it comes out at -0.4% or higher, NZD/USD should rally 30-40 pips.
If it comes out at -1.0% or lower, NZD/USD shold sell off 30-40 pips.
0830 US GDP 1Q Final Annualized (-5.7% expected) - Usually the final revision to GDP is the least important and deemed less significant by the markets; however, it is still a GDP release, and it should have an impact if there's a big surprise. Since this is a final revision, we'll need a decent 0.5% deviation to make it reliably worth trading. The likelihood of hitting that trigger is somewhat small historically, but it's possible given all the unusual complexity to the data from the first quarter.
If it comes out at -5.2% or higher, EUR/JPY should rally 50 pips.
If it comes out at -6.2% or lower, EUR/JPY shoudl sell off 50 pips.
1845 NZ GDP q/q (-0.7% expected) - This should be an ok trade as long as it hits a 0.3% deviation. If we get a smaller 0.2% away from expectations, it might be ok if the y/y (expected at -2.3%) difference is decent also, but it's not quite as reliable.
If it comes out at -0.4% or higher, NZD/USD should rally 30-40 pips.
If it comes out at -1.0% or lower, NZD/USD shold sell off 30-40 pips.
Thursday 18 June 2009
Forex Trading Signal 06/18/09
0430 UK Retail Sales y/y (-0.4% expected) - We haven't seen a clear signal on this indicator in awhile, and with some strange price action lately on this news, be careful that the monthly number has a significant surprise in the same direction in order to stick with a trade here. If a trend develops, I recommend holding no longer than 45 minutes.
If it comes out at +0.2%, GBP/USD should rally 40+ pips.
If it comes out at -0.8%, gbp/USD should sell off 40+ pips.
If it comes out at +0.2%, GBP/USD should rally 40+ pips.
If it comes out at -0.8%, gbp/USD should sell off 40+ pips.
Wednesday 10 June 2009
Forex Signals for 10-06-2009 forward
seen a pretty sharp and momentuous retracement of last weeks selloff obviously threatening the validity of the call for a resumption of downside over the medium term on GBP/USD and EUR/USD. As of right now, it may end up simply being a very sharp retracement that will resume it's ultimate move lower fairly soon; however, there's so much buying pressure that it's probably best to stay neutral until we get a bit more confirmation. Unfortunately, we can't rule out either case until we start making some decent lower lows or break some of last week's key highs, so watch the video for a bit more on that and also stocks and gold and we'll take another look at them tomorrow. We are finally getting a bit of news this week though:
0430 UK Industrial Production (-0.1% expected) - This should be good for some pips short term, with follow-through more dependent on the medium term technicals
If it comes out at +0.2% or higher, GBP/USD should rally 30-45 pips.
If it comes out at -0.4% or lower, GBP/USD should sell off by 30-45 pips.
1700 NZ Interest Rate statement (expectations range from no change to 0.50% cut, with consensus somewhere in between no change and 0.25% cut) - Watch out for the text from the statement here on this one since sometimes the language conflicts with the decision itself.
If they leave the rate unchanged, NZD/USD should quickly rally 40 pips or more.
If they cut 0.50%, NZD/USD should sell off by 50+ pips.
AU Employment Change (-30K expected) and Unemployment Rate (5.7% expected) - Watch out for both numbers as either one is about as important as the other.
If Employment comes out at 0 or higher, and/or Unemployment Rate comes in at 5.5% or lower, AUD/USD should rally by 40+ pips.
If Employment comes out at -50K or lower, and/or Unemployment Rate comes in at 5.9% or higher, AUD/USD should sell off by 40+ pips.
0430 UK Industrial Production (-0.1% expected) - This should be good for some pips short term, with follow-through more dependent on the medium term technicals
If it comes out at +0.2% or higher, GBP/USD should rally 30-45 pips.
If it comes out at -0.4% or lower, GBP/USD should sell off by 30-45 pips.
1700 NZ Interest Rate statement (expectations range from no change to 0.50% cut, with consensus somewhere in between no change and 0.25% cut) - Watch out for the text from the statement here on this one since sometimes the language conflicts with the decision itself.
If they leave the rate unchanged, NZD/USD should quickly rally 40 pips or more.
If they cut 0.50%, NZD/USD should sell off by 50+ pips.
AU Employment Change (-30K expected) and Unemployment Rate (5.7% expected) - Watch out for both numbers as either one is about as important as the other.
If Employment comes out at 0 or higher, and/or Unemployment Rate comes in at 5.5% or lower, AUD/USD should rally by 40+ pips.
If Employment comes out at -50K or lower, and/or Unemployment Rate comes in at 5.9% or higher, AUD/USD should sell off by 40+ pips.
Sunday 7 June 2009
The world's most expensive stock index will plunge 50%
The world's most expensive stock index will plunge 50%
June 1 (Bloomberg) -- The steepest rally in the Topix index in 56 years has turned Japanese stocks into the world’s most expensive equities. Not for long, say hedge-fund managers betting the recession will prevent earnings from rebounding.
Bridgewater Associates Inc., Highbridge Capital Management LLC and Farallon Capital Management LLC, which together oversee almost $80 billion, increased bets against Japanese companies in the past three months, filings to the Tokyo Stock Exchange show. The Topix climbed 30 percent in the same period, the most since 1953, and shares in the index trade at an average 41.2 times estimated earnings, the highest level among the 40 largest markets, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Bullish investors say Japanese stocks, which have recovered 44 percent of the losses that followed the collapse of New York- based Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September, will rise further because analysts predict earnings will rebound the most since 2000. Bears point to forecasts by economists that show Japan will contract twice as much as the U.S. this year.
“Investors are anticipating a strong earnings recovery in 2010, but it’s really doubtful,” said Kazuyuki Terao, a Tokyo- based manager at the Japanese unit of Allianz SE, which oversees $1.6 trillion. “The markets have gotten ahead of themselves.”
The Topix rose 1.6 percent to 912.52 today, while the Nikkei 225 Stock Average advanced 1.6 percent to 9,677.75. Last week, the Topix gained 2.5 percent, while the Nikkei 225 climbed 3.2 percent, rounding out a third consecutive month of gains.
Higher Valuations
Japanese valuations dwarf those of companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, which traded at an average 16.1 times earnings, based on 2009 estimates as of last week. Stocks in the Topix were also more than twice as expensive as shares in China, Hong Kong, Australia and South Korea, and traded at about three times the valuations for Germany’s DAX Index, the U.K.’s FTSE 100 and France’s CAC 40, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
A decline to the average valuation during the past five years of 21 times earnings would drive down the Topix by about half its value, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The 1,703 companies in the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s first section, where the biggest Japanese corporations list, are forecast to earn an adjusted 22.1 yen (23 U.S. cents) per share this year, based on share-weighted analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. In 2008, they lost 12.99 yen a share.
Lost Decade
Japan’s economy shrank at a 15.2 percent annual rate in the first quarter, the most since data began in 1955. Gross domestic product will drop 6.7 percent in 2009, according to the median forecast of 11 economists compiled by Bloomberg. That’s more than twice the 2.8 percent contraction projected for the U.S. in another survey of 61 economists.
June 1 (Bloomberg) -- The steepest rally in the Topix index in 56 years has turned Japanese stocks into the world’s most expensive equities. Not for long, say hedge-fund managers betting the recession will prevent earnings from rebounding.
Bridgewater Associates Inc., Highbridge Capital Management LLC and Farallon Capital Management LLC, which together oversee almost $80 billion, increased bets against Japanese companies in the past three months, filings to the Tokyo Stock Exchange show. The Topix climbed 30 percent in the same period, the most since 1953, and shares in the index trade at an average 41.2 times estimated earnings, the highest level among the 40 largest markets, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Bullish investors say Japanese stocks, which have recovered 44 percent of the losses that followed the collapse of New York- based Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September, will rise further because analysts predict earnings will rebound the most since 2000. Bears point to forecasts by economists that show Japan will contract twice as much as the U.S. this year.
“Investors are anticipating a strong earnings recovery in 2010, but it’s really doubtful,” said Kazuyuki Terao, a Tokyo- based manager at the Japanese unit of Allianz SE, which oversees $1.6 trillion. “The markets have gotten ahead of themselves.”
The Topix rose 1.6 percent to 912.52 today, while the Nikkei 225 Stock Average advanced 1.6 percent to 9,677.75. Last week, the Topix gained 2.5 percent, while the Nikkei 225 climbed 3.2 percent, rounding out a third consecutive month of gains.
Higher Valuations
Japanese valuations dwarf those of companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, which traded at an average 16.1 times earnings, based on 2009 estimates as of last week. Stocks in the Topix were also more than twice as expensive as shares in China, Hong Kong, Australia and South Korea, and traded at about three times the valuations for Germany’s DAX Index, the U.K.’s FTSE 100 and France’s CAC 40, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
A decline to the average valuation during the past five years of 21 times earnings would drive down the Topix by about half its value, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The 1,703 companies in the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s first section, where the biggest Japanese corporations list, are forecast to earn an adjusted 22.1 yen (23 U.S. cents) per share this year, based on share-weighted analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. In 2008, they lost 12.99 yen a share.
Lost Decade
Japan’s economy shrank at a 15.2 percent annual rate in the first quarter, the most since data began in 1955. Gross domestic product will drop 6.7 percent in 2009, according to the median forecast of 11 economists compiled by Bloomberg. That’s more than twice the 2.8 percent contraction projected for the U.S. in another survey of 61 economists.
Friday 5 June 2009
Forex Trading signals 05-06-09 forward to next week
The EUR/USD broke through 1.4100 to confirm the head and shoulders sell on the hourly, only to frustratingly rally back up as GBP continues to be the preferential sell.
At the moment, as long as the 1.4241 highs hold on EUR/USD, the bias should be short from here.
If those highs go I'd shift to neutral. If we do resume downside price action as we've seen on the GBP, the 1.3800 level is a likely medium term target. One big reason the GBP has been weak are rumors of Prime Minister Brown potentially resigning.
These rumors have been refuted by his office, but the markets definitely still smell blood. Pretty much all of the scheduled news on Thursday came out pretty vanilla without any big surprises with the exception of very strong UK Halifax house prices which made a very nice short term GBP strengthening move of 80 pips in 40 minutes.
0700 CAD Employment (-36.5 expected) - Last month's huge positive deviation created a surprisingly small selloff in the USD/CAD. On the one hand it seems as though CAD levels after news events have been frequently manipulated; however, CAD Employment is usually a very reliable indicator and one bad month shouldn't completely force us to sit on our hands here. A comprimise of trading a wider trigger than usual seems appropriate.
If it comes out at 0.0K or higher, USD/CAD should sell off 50 pips
If it comes out at -62K or lower, USD/CAD should rally 40+ pips
0830 US Nonfarm Payrolls (-520K expected) - We have not seen very large deviations on this report since December 2008. Because of that, we've gotten a lot of strange price action on the smaller deviations primarily due to large order flows that tend to follow this release. I recommend trading a wide 100K trigger and if it comes out closer to expected than that, or if there's a conflict with Unemployment Rate,
avoid taking long directional trades and simply look to scalp sell rallies and scalp buy sell offs into support.
Because we've seen some clear decoupling of EUR/USD, USD/JPY and EUR/JPY, it's hard to say which pair will have the best reaction on the news. My best guess is USD/JPY will be best for a quick news spike pop, but EUR/JPY will have the deepest, most sustainable move.
If it comes out at -420K or higher, EUR/JPY should rally 50+ pips
If it comes out at -620K or lower, EUR/JPY should sell off 50+ pips
At the moment, as long as the 1.4241 highs hold on EUR/USD, the bias should be short from here.
If those highs go I'd shift to neutral. If we do resume downside price action as we've seen on the GBP, the 1.3800 level is a likely medium term target. One big reason the GBP has been weak are rumors of Prime Minister Brown potentially resigning.
These rumors have been refuted by his office, but the markets definitely still smell blood. Pretty much all of the scheduled news on Thursday came out pretty vanilla without any big surprises with the exception of very strong UK Halifax house prices which made a very nice short term GBP strengthening move of 80 pips in 40 minutes.
0700 CAD Employment (-36.5 expected) - Last month's huge positive deviation created a surprisingly small selloff in the USD/CAD. On the one hand it seems as though CAD levels after news events have been frequently manipulated; however, CAD Employment is usually a very reliable indicator and one bad month shouldn't completely force us to sit on our hands here. A comprimise of trading a wider trigger than usual seems appropriate.
If it comes out at 0.0K or higher, USD/CAD should sell off 50 pips
If it comes out at -62K or lower, USD/CAD should rally 40+ pips
0830 US Nonfarm Payrolls (-520K expected) - We have not seen very large deviations on this report since December 2008. Because of that, we've gotten a lot of strange price action on the smaller deviations primarily due to large order flows that tend to follow this release. I recommend trading a wide 100K trigger and if it comes out closer to expected than that, or if there's a conflict with Unemployment Rate,
avoid taking long directional trades and simply look to scalp sell rallies and scalp buy sell offs into support.
Because we've seen some clear decoupling of EUR/USD, USD/JPY and EUR/JPY, it's hard to say which pair will have the best reaction on the news. My best guess is USD/JPY will be best for a quick news spike pop, but EUR/JPY will have the deepest, most sustainable move.
If it comes out at -420K or higher, EUR/JPY should rally 50+ pips
If it comes out at -620K or lower, EUR/JPY should sell off 50+ pips
Tuesday 26 May 2009
trading tip for week from wednesday 27-05-2009
We're seeing the risk aversion sentiment continue to weigh on markets, but we still haven't quite gotten that breakout lower yet to both fully confirm our outlook and accellerate things lower. The 875 level on the S&P 500 futures is the key level to watch while the 132 handle is the near term support to watch on the EUR/JPY. Please watch the video for a much more detailed look at EUR/USD, US equities and gold. Monday's German IFO came in lower than expected, but not low enough to hit our sell trigger, so the price action wasn't terribly strong. There are several news items due out Tuesday, but none are very tradable on currencies right now in my opinion. In the video I explain a bit about most of them and what they might bring to the table though. The next clearly tradable report is out Wednesday morning:
1000 Wednesday 5-27 US Existing Home Sales m/m (4.66M expected) - This indicator has performed quite well on the EUR/JPY when it hits a nice trigger.
If it comes out at 4.80M or higher, EUR/JPY should rally 50 pips or more
If it comes out at 4.52M or lower, EUR/JPY should sell off 50 pips or more
1000 Wednesday 5-27 US Existing Home Sales m/m (4.66M expected) - This indicator has performed quite well on the EUR/JPY when it hits a nice trigger.
If it comes out at 4.80M or higher, EUR/JPY should rally 50 pips or more
If it comes out at 4.52M or lower, EUR/JPY should sell off 50 pips or more
Saturday 16 May 2009
ONLINE FOREX TRADING LOOK OUT FOR SCAMS
The easiest way to spot a forex scam is by its promises.
There’s no such thing as a high profit and low risk investment. Anyone who tells you there is is likely to be generating a few high profits for himself... and running the risk of going to jail. Really if there was an easy fool proof way to make unlimited money with no effort and no risk, then you can bet that the people doing it wouldn't share the secret for $99.99. Why would they bother..? They could train you for free if money wasn't an issue, or simple give out money to worthy causes, couldn't they..
IIf a forex deal looks too good to be true -- like anything -- it probably is.
Steer clear too of highly leveraged margin trading, at least when you’re starting to trade forex. As you can find yourself easily wiping out completely over small market movements.
Margins are similar to deposits. They let traders commit to larger deals in the future, and allow unscrupulous traders to gamble with other people’s money without fully explaining to them what they’re risking. An investor might believe that he or she has only risked $1,000 when in fact they’ve committed to a trade several times that figure. If the trade becomes unprofitable, the victims of such forex scams could find themselves with much larger losses than they anticipated.
Another sign that a trader might be looking to take you for a ride is if they claim that they can trade in the Interbank Market. This is a network of currency transactions involving banks and other large organizations. Because the volumes are much higher, prices can be higher too. It’s not usually the sort of place where small investors tend to trade so being told by a trader that he can put your money there is a little like buying a watch from a man in a bar: there’s a good chance the person you’re dealing with isn’t the most honest.
There’s no such thing as a high profit and low risk investment. Anyone who tells you there is is likely to be generating a few high profits for himself... and running the risk of going to jail. Really if there was an easy fool proof way to make unlimited money with no effort and no risk, then you can bet that the people doing it wouldn't share the secret for $99.99. Why would they bother..? They could train you for free if money wasn't an issue, or simple give out money to worthy causes, couldn't they..
IIf a forex deal looks too good to be true -- like anything -- it probably is.
Steer clear too of highly leveraged margin trading, at least when you’re starting to trade forex. As you can find yourself easily wiping out completely over small market movements.
Margins are similar to deposits. They let traders commit to larger deals in the future, and allow unscrupulous traders to gamble with other people’s money without fully explaining to them what they’re risking. An investor might believe that he or she has only risked $1,000 when in fact they’ve committed to a trade several times that figure. If the trade becomes unprofitable, the victims of such forex scams could find themselves with much larger losses than they anticipated.
Another sign that a trader might be looking to take you for a ride is if they claim that they can trade in the Interbank Market. This is a network of currency transactions involving banks and other large organizations. Because the volumes are much higher, prices can be higher too. It’s not usually the sort of place where small investors tend to trade so being told by a trader that he can put your money there is a little like buying a watch from a man in a bar: there’s a good chance the person you’re dealing with isn’t the most honest.
Wednesday 13 May 2009
forex trading for 13-05-09 3 day indicators
Hey folks,
Many USD pairs like the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD and some others are approaching some former high fibbonacci resistance on the daily chart. While the picture continues to highlight some nice bullish momentum, with many USD pairs overextended into resistance, it looks like a good setup for a short to medium term short. Watch the video for more details there. After pushing through 919, gold is looking potentially short term bullish, but the potential for a medium to long term significant decline is still quite palpable, so I'd play it with either a short term buy looking for the 935-950 range to take profits, or wait for a potential rally to that region to get short for a longer position/swing trade. Stocks are starting to exhibit signs of waning momentum and this time sentiment is really starting to flip a bit negative along with it. I think a 100 point or so pullback is inevitable on the S&P and with lower highs and lower lows on the hourly chart, I think it may be brewing even now.
Tuesday saw the UK Claimant Count Change released "accidentally" early in the NY session and came out much better than expected, although that did not benefit the GBP greatly. Because of that there is no 0430 EST release out of the UK, and all eyes will be focused on the 0530 BoE Inflation Report.
0530 BoE Inflation Report - The last 4 straight quarters have produced very large down moves on GBP on a consistent basis; however, the picture seems to be changing in the UK and this could really go either way. I'm expecting a little bit of early buying on GBP/USD early in the session, but it likely be met with some stiff selling heading into this report as people could fear some sobering projections. Fundamentally, there are 3 aspects to look at in this report:
Quantitative Easing Language - This is the main thing the market is looking for on this report. Reassurring language that makes it seem as though the Asset Purchases are working well and further expansions are not needed will be GBP bullish, while language either concerned about its effectiveness or hints that the program is likely to be expanded either further will be GBP bearish.
Growth and Inflation Forecasts - Very pessimistic language on growth and worries about deflation will lead to selling pressure while more optimistic outlooks on growth and more concern on inflation will likely lead to buying pressure.
0830 US Core Retail Sales (0.2% expected) - This should have a good reaction out of the yen crosses as it did last month, but I expect some prenews buying pressure on those pairs like EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY and AUD/JPY as many news items like these have been surprising to the upside and some speculators may want to get in on it early.
If it comes out at 1.0% or higher, EUR/JPY should rally by 40-50 pips (if there is very noticable prenews buying though, those gains may be shortlived)
If it comse out at -0.8% or lower, EUR/JPY should sell off by 40-50 pips regardless of whether prenews buying materialized.
FOREX TRADING SYSTEM
Many USD pairs like the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD and some others are approaching some former high fibbonacci resistance on the daily chart. While the picture continues to highlight some nice bullish momentum, with many USD pairs overextended into resistance, it looks like a good setup for a short to medium term short. Watch the video for more details there. After pushing through 919, gold is looking potentially short term bullish, but the potential for a medium to long term significant decline is still quite palpable, so I'd play it with either a short term buy looking for the 935-950 range to take profits, or wait for a potential rally to that region to get short for a longer position/swing trade. Stocks are starting to exhibit signs of waning momentum and this time sentiment is really starting to flip a bit negative along with it. I think a 100 point or so pullback is inevitable on the S&P and with lower highs and lower lows on the hourly chart, I think it may be brewing even now.
Tuesday saw the UK Claimant Count Change released "accidentally" early in the NY session and came out much better than expected, although that did not benefit the GBP greatly. Because of that there is no 0430 EST release out of the UK, and all eyes will be focused on the 0530 BoE Inflation Report.
0530 BoE Inflation Report - The last 4 straight quarters have produced very large down moves on GBP on a consistent basis; however, the picture seems to be changing in the UK and this could really go either way. I'm expecting a little bit of early buying on GBP/USD early in the session, but it likely be met with some stiff selling heading into this report as people could fear some sobering projections. Fundamentally, there are 3 aspects to look at in this report:
Quantitative Easing Language - This is the main thing the market is looking for on this report. Reassurring language that makes it seem as though the Asset Purchases are working well and further expansions are not needed will be GBP bullish, while language either concerned about its effectiveness or hints that the program is likely to be expanded either further will be GBP bearish.
Growth and Inflation Forecasts - Very pessimistic language on growth and worries about deflation will lead to selling pressure while more optimistic outlooks on growth and more concern on inflation will likely lead to buying pressure.
0830 US Core Retail Sales (0.2% expected) - This should have a good reaction out of the yen crosses as it did last month, but I expect some prenews buying pressure on those pairs like EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY and AUD/JPY as many news items like these have been surprising to the upside and some speculators may want to get in on it early.
If it comes out at 1.0% or higher, EUR/JPY should rally by 40-50 pips (if there is very noticable prenews buying though, those gains may be shortlived)
If it comse out at -0.8% or lower, EUR/JPY should sell off by 40-50 pips regardless of whether prenews buying materialized.
FOREX TRADING SYSTEM
Monday 11 May 2009
Down trend on long term looks certain for U.S. Dollar
mon : may: 11th--2009
Fundamental The EUR/USD opened around 1.3640 in Asia and moved up to 1.3670 very quickly to trigger stops above 1.3650. The price action reversed following a report in the UK Telegraph saying that HSBC lost 5 BLN USD in Q1 2009 in their US Household mortgage lending operation. Technical Technical analysis show us the euro may continue its uptrend as MACD giving us a strong buying signal by crossing MACD line to the signal line and RSI is in a clear uptrend. Bollinger gives us a bullish signal
Fundamental The EUR/USD opened around 1.3640 in Asia and moved up to 1.3670 very quickly to trigger stops above 1.3650. The price action reversed following a report in the UK Telegraph saying that HSBC lost 5 BLN USD in Q1 2009 in their US Household mortgage lending operation. Technical Technical analysis show us the euro may continue its uptrend as MACD giving us a strong buying signal by crossing MACD line to the signal line and RSI is in a clear uptrend. Bollinger gives us a bullish signal
Wednesday 6 May 2009
Trick to knowing where the top and bottom on forex
Before entering any trade on forex there is are numerous indicators to work out that can help or hinder your desision making process. BUT to make it simple you should simply check the buying and selling ratio, this will rise when the wave of trade is followed by the masses then decline before a reverse.
get in the trade as the trade amounts begin to slip to make a killing on the pullback or recovery.
get in the trade as the trade amounts begin to slip to make a killing on the pullback or recovery.
Friday 1 May 2009
next 7 day Economic trading Indicators from 04-05-2009
next 7 day Economic trading Indicators from 04-05-2009
Monday 04-05-09
UK: Nationwide House Prices, 09:30 BBA Loans Approved
EU: 07:10 Eurozone GfK Consumer Confidence
Results
EU: Merck KGaA (Germany), Krones (Germany), Atlas Copco (Sweden)
US: Verizon, Check Point Software, Corning, Qualcomm
Tuesday 05-05-09 Economic Indicators
EU: German CPI, German European Harmonised CPI, 07:45 French Consumer Confidence, 07:45 French Housing Permits, 07:45 French Housing Starts, 09:00 Italian Retail Sales
US: 12:45 ICSC-UBS Retail Chain Store Sales, 13:55 Redbook, 15:00 Conference Board Consumer Confidence, 15:00 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, 22:00 ABC News Consumer Confidence
Results
UK: BP, Reckitt Benckiser, Whitbread, Brown Group, Zincox Resources
IRE: Icon
EU: Vestas Wind Systems (Denmark), Daimler (Germany), Deutsche Bank (Germany), SGL Carbon (Germany), DSM (Netherlands), KPN (Netherlands), Yara International (Norway), Fabege (Sweden), Svenska Cellulosa (Sweden), Svenska Handelsbanken (Sweden)
US: Pfizer, Franklin Resources, Bristol Myers, Cabot Oil & Gas, Sun Microsystems, Jacob Engineering, Level 3 Communications, Massey Energy, Range Resources, Southwestern Energy, Tellabs, Unisys, United States Steel
Wednesday 06-05-09
IRE: 11:00 New Private Car Registrations, 11:00 New Vehicle Registrations, 11:00 Total Persons on Live Register, 11:00 Trade Balance, 11:00 Unemployment Rate
EU: 08:00 Spanish Retail Sales, 09:00 Eurozone Bloomberg Retail PMI, 09:00 Eurozone M3 Money Supply, 09:00 French Bloomberg Retail PMI, 09:00 German Bloomberg Retail PMI, 10:00 Eurozone European Commission Economic Sentiment, 10:00 Eurozone European Commission Common Factor in Industry, 10:00 Eurozone Consumer and Economic Confidence
US: 13:30 GDP, 13:30 GDP Price Index, 13:30 Personal Consumption, 19:15 Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision, 15:35 Oil Inventories
Results
UK: Home Retail Group, Royal Dutch Shell, ARM Holdings, Burberry, Fenner, Lookers, Punch Taverns, Wolfson Electronics
EU: DSV (Denmark), Novozymes (Denmark), Sanofi-Aventis (France), STMicroelectronics (France), Bayer (Germany), Sap (Germany), Siemens (Germany), Volkswagen (Germany), Continental (Germany), Vossloh (Germany), Norsk Hydro (Norway), Renewable Energy (Norway), Nordea Bank (Sweden), Sandvik (Sweden)
US: Barrick Gold, Akamai Technologies, Amkor Tech, Baker Hughes, Citrix Systems, Express Scripts, General Dynamics, Hess Corporation, Human Genome, IAC/Interactivecorp, JDS Uniphase, LSI, Moody, MGIC Investment, Starbucks, Southern, Questar, Time Warner, Visa, Varian Medical
Thursday 07-5-09
UK: GfK Consumer Confidence
EU: Eurozone Total Housing, German Retail Sales, 07:00 German ILO Unemployment Rate, 07:45 French PPI, 08:55 German Unemployment Rate, 10:00 Eurozone Flash Estimate of CPI, 10:00 Eurozone Unemployment, 10:00 Italian European Harmonised CPI
US: 13:30 Employment Cost Index, 13:30 Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims, 13:30 Personal Income and Expenditures, 14:45 Chicago PMI, 15:00 Total Milwaukee Index, 15.35 Gas Inventories, 21.30 Money Supply
Results
UK: Astra Zeneca, BG Group, BSkyB, Shire, Smith & Nephew, Heritage Oil, Trifast
IRE: Independent News
EU: Novo Nordisk (Denmark), BASF (Germany), Fresenius Medical Care (Germany), Fresenius (Germany), Infineon Technologies (Germany), Deutsche Lufthansa (Germany), Man (Germany), Hugo Boss (Germany), Wacker Chemie (Germany), Aker Solutions (Norway), Fred Olsen Energy (Norway), Ericsson (Sweden), Swedish Match (Sweden)
US: General Motors, Proctor and Gamble, Exxon Mobil, Apache, Cabelas, CIGNA, Colgate Palmolive, Comcast, Cummins, Covidien, Dow Chemical Co, Eastman Kodak, Fiserv, Hartford Finanical Services, International Paper, Microchip Tech, Motorola, Noble Energy, Newmont Mining, NYSE Euronext, PerkinElmer, Q Logic, Strayer Education, Tyco, VIACOM, Williams Companies, Wynn Resorts
Friday 08-05-09
UK: 09:30 Bank of England Mortgage Applications, 09:30 M4 Money Supply, 09:30 Markit Manufacturing PMI, 09:30 Net Lending to Individuals
IRE: 11:00 Retail Sales
US: Auto Sales, 15:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 15:00 Manufacturers New Orders, 15:00 University of Michigan Survey
Results
UK: Colt Telecom
US: Chevron, Consolidated Edison, Nicor, Simon Property Group
Press Roundup
In a move that is likely to become more frequent in the coming months, two of Britain’s best known entrepreneurs, Hugh Osmond and Peter Hargreaves, are considering leaving Britain in protest against Alistair Darling’s new 50% tax rate, reveals the Sunday Times.
The Sunday Times breaks the news that Northern Rock is to be sold off by the end of the year under a fast-track government plan to start clawing back some of the hundreds of billions of pounds of taxpayers’ money ploughed into the banking sector.
Senior bankers and board members at Deutsche Bank are considering their positions after heated rows over the decision not to pay bonuses at the group, according to the Sunday Independent.
The Irish Times reports that Denis O’Brien, Independent News & Media’s second-biggest shareholder, believes that there is only a “50-50 chance” of the media group refinancing a €200 million bond that is due to be paid on May 19th.
The Irish Independent understands that a number of rival airlines and private equity firms are eyeing up Aer Lingus with a view to becoming a strategic partner with the carrier.
Disclaimer
The comment in this article is the personal opinion of the author(s) and not paddypowertrader. The content does not constitute financial, investment or tax advice. You are advised to discuss your specific requirements with an independent financial adviser prior to entering into any bet. paddypowertrader is not responsible and disclaims any and all liability for the content of comments written by contributors to the article, and the content of any third party sites linked from this article
If you aren't a paddypowertrader client or if you would like to receive the Weekly Wrap at a new email address, please enter it below.
All BlogsCar Trouble For Stocks
A late pre-mayday slump yesterday saw the US market give back earlier healthy gains as traders worried over the governments heavy handed and ham fisted handling of the Chrysler saga and the shift back in focus to GM ... Read more
Economic Indicators To Look Out For
Month End Madness
Spread Trading Compared To Share Trading
Stocks Piggyback On The Fed
Dollar Falls As Equity Rally Continues
What Next For The U.S. Recession?
See all blogs
Trader Academy
For in depth tutorials and step by step
guides to spread betting visit our
trader academy.
Visit the Trader Academy
Monday 04-05-09
UK: Nationwide House Prices, 09:30 BBA Loans Approved
EU: 07:10 Eurozone GfK Consumer Confidence
Results
EU: Merck KGaA (Germany), Krones (Germany), Atlas Copco (Sweden)
US: Verizon, Check Point Software, Corning, Qualcomm
Tuesday 05-05-09 Economic Indicators
EU: German CPI, German European Harmonised CPI, 07:45 French Consumer Confidence, 07:45 French Housing Permits, 07:45 French Housing Starts, 09:00 Italian Retail Sales
US: 12:45 ICSC-UBS Retail Chain Store Sales, 13:55 Redbook, 15:00 Conference Board Consumer Confidence, 15:00 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, 22:00 ABC News Consumer Confidence
Results
UK: BP, Reckitt Benckiser, Whitbread, Brown Group, Zincox Resources
IRE: Icon
EU: Vestas Wind Systems (Denmark), Daimler (Germany), Deutsche Bank (Germany), SGL Carbon (Germany), DSM (Netherlands), KPN (Netherlands), Yara International (Norway), Fabege (Sweden), Svenska Cellulosa (Sweden), Svenska Handelsbanken (Sweden)
US: Pfizer, Franklin Resources, Bristol Myers, Cabot Oil & Gas, Sun Microsystems, Jacob Engineering, Level 3 Communications, Massey Energy, Range Resources, Southwestern Energy, Tellabs, Unisys, United States Steel
Wednesday 06-05-09
IRE: 11:00 New Private Car Registrations, 11:00 New Vehicle Registrations, 11:00 Total Persons on Live Register, 11:00 Trade Balance, 11:00 Unemployment Rate
EU: 08:00 Spanish Retail Sales, 09:00 Eurozone Bloomberg Retail PMI, 09:00 Eurozone M3 Money Supply, 09:00 French Bloomberg Retail PMI, 09:00 German Bloomberg Retail PMI, 10:00 Eurozone European Commission Economic Sentiment, 10:00 Eurozone European Commission Common Factor in Industry, 10:00 Eurozone Consumer and Economic Confidence
US: 13:30 GDP, 13:30 GDP Price Index, 13:30 Personal Consumption, 19:15 Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision, 15:35 Oil Inventories
Results
UK: Home Retail Group, Royal Dutch Shell, ARM Holdings, Burberry, Fenner, Lookers, Punch Taverns, Wolfson Electronics
EU: DSV (Denmark), Novozymes (Denmark), Sanofi-Aventis (France), STMicroelectronics (France), Bayer (Germany), Sap (Germany), Siemens (Germany), Volkswagen (Germany), Continental (Germany), Vossloh (Germany), Norsk Hydro (Norway), Renewable Energy (Norway), Nordea Bank (Sweden), Sandvik (Sweden)
US: Barrick Gold, Akamai Technologies, Amkor Tech, Baker Hughes, Citrix Systems, Express Scripts, General Dynamics, Hess Corporation, Human Genome, IAC/Interactivecorp, JDS Uniphase, LSI, Moody, MGIC Investment, Starbucks, Southern, Questar, Time Warner, Visa, Varian Medical
Thursday 07-5-09
UK: GfK Consumer Confidence
EU: Eurozone Total Housing, German Retail Sales, 07:00 German ILO Unemployment Rate, 07:45 French PPI, 08:55 German Unemployment Rate, 10:00 Eurozone Flash Estimate of CPI, 10:00 Eurozone Unemployment, 10:00 Italian European Harmonised CPI
US: 13:30 Employment Cost Index, 13:30 Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims, 13:30 Personal Income and Expenditures, 14:45 Chicago PMI, 15:00 Total Milwaukee Index, 15.35 Gas Inventories, 21.30 Money Supply
Results
UK: Astra Zeneca, BG Group, BSkyB, Shire, Smith & Nephew, Heritage Oil, Trifast
IRE: Independent News
EU: Novo Nordisk (Denmark), BASF (Germany), Fresenius Medical Care (Germany), Fresenius (Germany), Infineon Technologies (Germany), Deutsche Lufthansa (Germany), Man (Germany), Hugo Boss (Germany), Wacker Chemie (Germany), Aker Solutions (Norway), Fred Olsen Energy (Norway), Ericsson (Sweden), Swedish Match (Sweden)
US: General Motors, Proctor and Gamble, Exxon Mobil, Apache, Cabelas, CIGNA, Colgate Palmolive, Comcast, Cummins, Covidien, Dow Chemical Co, Eastman Kodak, Fiserv, Hartford Finanical Services, International Paper, Microchip Tech, Motorola, Noble Energy, Newmont Mining, NYSE Euronext, PerkinElmer, Q Logic, Strayer Education, Tyco, VIACOM, Williams Companies, Wynn Resorts
Friday 08-05-09
UK: 09:30 Bank of England Mortgage Applications, 09:30 M4 Money Supply, 09:30 Markit Manufacturing PMI, 09:30 Net Lending to Individuals
IRE: 11:00 Retail Sales
US: Auto Sales, 15:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 15:00 Manufacturers New Orders, 15:00 University of Michigan Survey
Results
UK: Colt Telecom
US: Chevron, Consolidated Edison, Nicor, Simon Property Group
Press Roundup
In a move that is likely to become more frequent in the coming months, two of Britain’s best known entrepreneurs, Hugh Osmond and Peter Hargreaves, are considering leaving Britain in protest against Alistair Darling’s new 50% tax rate, reveals the Sunday Times.
The Sunday Times breaks the news that Northern Rock is to be sold off by the end of the year under a fast-track government plan to start clawing back some of the hundreds of billions of pounds of taxpayers’ money ploughed into the banking sector.
Senior bankers and board members at Deutsche Bank are considering their positions after heated rows over the decision not to pay bonuses at the group, according to the Sunday Independent.
The Irish Times reports that Denis O’Brien, Independent News & Media’s second-biggest shareholder, believes that there is only a “50-50 chance” of the media group refinancing a €200 million bond that is due to be paid on May 19th.
The Irish Independent understands that a number of rival airlines and private equity firms are eyeing up Aer Lingus with a view to becoming a strategic partner with the carrier.
Disclaimer
The comment in this article is the personal opinion of the author(s) and not paddypowertrader. The content does not constitute financial, investment or tax advice. You are advised to discuss your specific requirements with an independent financial adviser prior to entering into any bet. paddypowertrader is not responsible and disclaims any and all liability for the content of comments written by contributors to the article, and the content of any third party sites linked from this article
If you aren't a paddypowertrader client or if you would like to receive the Weekly Wrap at a new email address, please enter it below.
All BlogsCar Trouble For Stocks
A late pre-mayday slump yesterday saw the US market give back earlier healthy gains as traders worried over the governments heavy handed and ham fisted handling of the Chrysler saga and the shift back in focus to GM ... Read more
Economic Indicators To Look Out For
Month End Madness
Spread Trading Compared To Share Trading
Stocks Piggyback On The Fed
Dollar Falls As Equity Rally Continues
What Next For The U.S. Recession?
See all blogs
Trader Academy
For in depth tutorials and step by step
guides to spread betting visit our
trader academy.
Visit the Trader Academy
Wednesday 29 April 2009
forex trade signals for week from 29/04/09
Tuesday saw a big rumor of higher Consumer Confidence figures get proven right, please watch the video for further analysis of that. the EUR/USD seems to be wavering around within it's down channel, so sells in the 1.3250 to 1.3300 range look like a good opportunity for today, but be aware we may see some heightened risk appetite in anticipation of a rosy FOMC interest statement, especially if GDP comes out a bit better than expected. Gold also looks like a good short anywhere from 900 to 912 with a convincing rally through 918 as a good mental stop. Stocks continue to consolidate but seem to be running out of steam. We might have one last blowout rally left IF we get good news today, but if not... look out below. For the news on Wednesday:
0830 US GDP Annualized q/q Advance (consensus somewhere from -4.7 to -4.9%) - I think we could see a nice clean trade off this one in either direction, but on the sell side be wary in case traders feverishly buy a nice dip in anticipation of the FOMC.
If it comes out at -5.4% or lower, EUR/JPY should sell off by 50 pips.
If it comes out at -4.3% or higher, EUR/JPY should rally by 50 pips.
1415 US FOMC Interest Rate Decision/Statement (Expected to possibly cut rates from 0.25% to 0.13% and/or announce some new measures such as an expansion of MBS purchases to stimulate the economy) - As I mention in the video, the markets are eagerly expecting some form of juicy news from the FOMC this week. A cut to 0.13%, new unconventional measures... something... anything... Because of this we may see some risk appetite buying in advance of this announcement.
--If we do see people loading up long, and they do cut rates or push out a big new accomodative program or expand the scope of a current program or something, we will likely see a sharp spike up in EUR/JPY, but the profit taking afterwards will likely cause it to reverse, so I would likely look for some sort of reversal sell after the rally as long as the announcement isn't Earth-shattering.
--If there is no pre-news buying pressure during the European or NY sessions, then I would trade the news straight up and buy EUR/JPY on good accomodative news or an interest rate cut
--No matter what the setup, if there is no cut and no groundbreaking new programs or expansions, the markets will be disappointed and EUR/JPY should be a good sell.
--Lastly, if the Fed pulls a 180 and starts to express more immediate concern about inflation and withdrawing liquidity, that will create VERY strong selling pressure as that is the first step towards removing accomodation and that should be a clear EUR/JPY selling opportunity.
1700 NZ Interest Rates (expected 0.50% cut to 2.50%) - I think the only clear trade here is if they cut by more than expected. I'd feel too uncomfortable buying on a smaller cut:
If they cut by 0.75% or more, NZD/USD should sell off by 50 pips or more.
0830 US GDP Annualized q/q Advance (consensus somewhere from -4.7 to -4.9%) - I think we could see a nice clean trade off this one in either direction, but on the sell side be wary in case traders feverishly buy a nice dip in anticipation of the FOMC.
If it comes out at -5.4% or lower, EUR/JPY should sell off by 50 pips.
If it comes out at -4.3% or higher, EUR/JPY should rally by 50 pips.
1415 US FOMC Interest Rate Decision/Statement (Expected to possibly cut rates from 0.25% to 0.13% and/or announce some new measures such as an expansion of MBS purchases to stimulate the economy) - As I mention in the video, the markets are eagerly expecting some form of juicy news from the FOMC this week. A cut to 0.13%, new unconventional measures... something... anything... Because of this we may see some risk appetite buying in advance of this announcement.
--If we do see people loading up long, and they do cut rates or push out a big new accomodative program or expand the scope of a current program or something, we will likely see a sharp spike up in EUR/JPY, but the profit taking afterwards will likely cause it to reverse, so I would likely look for some sort of reversal sell after the rally as long as the announcement isn't Earth-shattering.
--If there is no pre-news buying pressure during the European or NY sessions, then I would trade the news straight up and buy EUR/JPY on good accomodative news or an interest rate cut
--No matter what the setup, if there is no cut and no groundbreaking new programs or expansions, the markets will be disappointed and EUR/JPY should be a good sell.
--Lastly, if the Fed pulls a 180 and starts to express more immediate concern about inflation and withdrawing liquidity, that will create VERY strong selling pressure as that is the first step towards removing accomodation and that should be a clear EUR/JPY selling opportunity.
1700 NZ Interest Rates (expected 0.50% cut to 2.50%) - I think the only clear trade here is if they cut by more than expected. I'd feel too uncomfortable buying on a smaller cut:
If they cut by 0.75% or more, NZD/USD should sell off by 50 pips or more.
Tuesday 28 April 2009
At the close of the markets on Friday evening Wall Street was at its lowest point in 6 years
EUR rose sharply against the USD shortly before the close of U.S. markets on Friday. Indeed, before last week (in which the USD rose steeply), traders and investors preferred to take their profits. Their decisions were based on the speculation about the proposed nationalisation of some U.S. banks by the weekend. Thus the EUR, which was trading with below 1.2557 USD on Friday took over 400 pips this morning and has traded throughout this morning at about 1.2974 USD, close to the psychologically important threshold of 1.30.
------------------------------------------------
JPY – it has started this week with a sharp rise against the major currencies. There seems to be a return of a taste for risk taking appearing again on the markets. At 09.00 GMT, EUR/USD is trading at 120.76 compared with 119.15 JPY at the opening this morning. The USD/JPY, for its part, is stable at 93.16, compared with 93.21 at the opening this morning, after its sharp rise last week, which saw the cross take nearly 400 pips.
---------------------------
The GBP also rose against the USD this morning with a start of around 1.4566 – could this be the start of a move towards 1.47 barrier ? For the moment the cable continues its upward phase and is currently testing the threshold of 1.4600. Although no major announcement is planned high volatility today is expected on this pair with an expected range of 1.4450 - 1.4750
-----------------------
------------------------------------------------
JPY – it has started this week with a sharp rise against the major currencies. There seems to be a return of a taste for risk taking appearing again on the markets. At 09.00 GMT, EUR/USD is trading at 120.76 compared with 119.15 JPY at the opening this morning. The USD/JPY, for its part, is stable at 93.16, compared with 93.21 at the opening this morning, after its sharp rise last week, which saw the cross take nearly 400 pips.
---------------------------
The GBP also rose against the USD this morning with a start of around 1.4566 – could this be the start of a move towards 1.47 barrier ? For the moment the cable continues its upward phase and is currently testing the threshold of 1.4600. Although no major announcement is planned high volatility today is expected on this pair with an expected range of 1.4450 - 1.4750
-----------------------
WHY GOLD IS A SAFE YET SEXY INVESTMENT IN TODAYS MARKET
This is an article all about gold bars and contains some detailed information about gold bars, the various types there are and who manufactures them.
What is a Gold Bar
All gold is measured in troy ounces and the purity is measured in karats (not to be confused with the weight measurement of carats for diamonds), and comes in a variety of forms sizes and weights. The definition of a gold bar is considered to be:
"A bar of gold made by a recognized bar manufacturer regardless of shape and size and upon which is reported the exact weight and purity of the gold as well as a registration number."
The larger bars are called ingots and are made by casting. That is poring molten gold into moulds. The smaller bars are made by pressing gold strips with a huge multi tonne stamp much in the same way gold coins are made. These are usually called biscuits, although not so crunchy. All bars of gold, regardless of size, should have stamped on them, the weight, the size and the manufacturers stamp. Also a registration number that corresponds with a certificate, which should also accompany every bar.
The advantage of smaller bars is of course the convenience. Gold is heavy and toting around 400 ounce bars is not for everyone. A couple of ounces of gold can be carried around in a pocket however. Smaller bars are easier to buy and sell due to the lower cost involved they are easier to store and transport. The disadvantage is the price. They carry a higher premium over the value of the gold due to the costs involved in manufacture.
The advantage of buying larger bars or ingots is that the premium is considerably lower per ounce and usually a fraction above the spot price of gold for the day of the sale. The disadvantages of course are the shipping and storing considerations. They are much more difficult to move around and store due to their weight. It is also harder to sell a larger bar or ingot than a smaller one due to the shipping, security and costs involved. In fact most of the larger ingots are stored in bank vaults around the world and the ownership is simply transferred by paper. The gold itself is rarely moved.
Types of Gold Bars
In 2008, the Bank of England Museum hosted the International Gold Bars Collection. Here all the various types of gold bars were displayed. There were literally hundreds of these from the basic 400 ounce bars to donuts and double pendants to fillets of wafer thin gold bars. Many of the most common bars which, with a little searching, you can find are described here.
400 ounce or 12.5 kg Gold Bar
There are about 55 active manufacturers worldwide whose 400 ounce or 12.5 kg gold bars are known and accepted internationally as London Good Delivery. All 400 ounce London Good Delivery gold bars weigh between 350 ounces and 430 ounces with a minimum gold purity of 99.5%. About 150,000 are made each year
Kilogold Bars
The Kilogold bar (1000 grams) is popular among investors and fabricators being traded at a low premium above the spot price of gold and is probably the world’s most widely traded small gold bar.
Most Kilogold bars have a flat international shape, but many investors and fabricators in Europe prefer traditional Kilogold bars in the shape of a brick.
'Tezabi' Gold Bars
These roughcast gold bars are manufactured in Pakistan by the thousand in small backyard gold bar manufacturers. They are to a theoretical 99.9% purity. The gold bars are not manufactured to any specific weight but are usually around 99.9% pure. The size can depend on the amount of gold available to the manufacturer as they are usually made from old gold or melted down gold jewelery.
You often find that the Tezabi will resemble some of the earliest known gold coins made by the Lydian kings of Asia Minor in the 7th century BC. The method used by Pakistanis in the manufacture of Tezabi gold bars is not believed to have changed in over 2,000 years. The Exhibition displays Tezabi gold bars manufactured by Saleh Mohammed in Pakistan.
Tael Gold Bars
A tael is more widely known as a Chinese unit of weight. One tael is equivalent to 1.2 ounces or 37.4 grams. Tael gold bars, which are cast not pressed, ranging from 1 tael to 10 taels, and are widely traded in Chinese-speaking countries, such as Hong Kong and Taiwan.
Cast tael gold bars are manufactured in 3 shapes: 'biscuits', 'doughnuts' and 'boats' The 'boat' shape is known to have been used for silver and other Chinese coinage as far back as the Han dynasty (206 BC - 220 AD) so it is not unexpected that gold 'boats' should be made also.
The most popular is the 5 Tael 'biscuit' cast gold bar, 6 onces or 187 grams. these gold bars, manufactured in Hong Kong by the Chinese Gold & Silver Exchange (founded in 1910), are traded in large quantities. Minted tael gold bars, normally made outside Hong Kong, are also available.
Lastly, the Tael gold bars, known as 'donuts', are available in smaller sizes with a hole in the center. This makes it easy for the donut gold bars to be securely stacked or bound together with string.
Baht Gold Bars
The baht is the unit of weight in Thailand. The most popular gold bar here is the 10 baht gold bar. This is usually 4.9 ounces or 150.4 grams and is 96.5 percent pure gold.
Tola Gold Bars
The tola is the Indian unit of weight. The most popular cast gold bar being the 10 tola equal to 3.75 ounces or 116.64 grams in weight. These are very popular with over two million cast each year in Europe, imported and widely traded in such places as the Middle East, India, Pakistan and Singapore.
The ten-tola bar is distinctive in that it has no serial number and is often used for smuggling. The edges are round rather than sharp and so are an ideal for smuggling, inside a smuggler’s body. Round tola gold bars very form part of 'marriage necklaces' weighing over 500 grams in Pakistan where they are very popular.
Chi Gold Bars
The chi is a Vietnamese unit of weight. 1 chi weighs 3.75 grams. 10 chi (or 1 cay or 1 luong) weighs 37.5 grams. Pamp (Switzerland) was the first among the accredited manufacturers to produce a range of chi denominated minted gold bars for Vietnam.
Decorative Gold Bars
Prior to 1980 gold bars were rather plain. Then decorated, even hologramed gold bars began to make their appearance. The manufacture of decorative gold bars is dominated mainly by manufacturers in Switzerland, Germany and Brazil with Pamp Suisse(Switzerland) pioneering multi-coloured hologram designs to minted gold bars in the 1990s. These gold bars are distributed worldwide and are very popular in the Middle East.
'Rainbow' Gold Bars
Mitsubishi (Japan), traditionally with a finger in very pie, is the pioneer manufacturer of multi-coloured ‘rainbow’ gold bars. This process produces various karat gold tones resulting in an infinite variety of gold patterns. The 'Rainbow' gold bar purity is set at 75 percent or 19 karat gold
Fine Gold Cards
Mitsubishi also pioneered fine gold business cards in the 1980s. These gold cards are very popular in Japan to impress VIP clients. Multi-coloured printed designs are available on the very thin sheet cards available from under 200 dollars each. Gold business cars up to 1000 g are available but the most popular and common card is the one gram gold card. They are available all over Japan as well as on the net by Mitsubishi.
'Yin-Yang' Gold Bars
Ishifuku, in Japan, have created to unusual kidney shaped gold bars representing the harmony of opposites in the Zen philosophy.
'Koban' Gold Bars
Tokuriki Honten, Also in Japan, has been manufacturing the ‘Koban’ gold bars since the early 1960s. These range in weight from 5 grams up to 50 grams. These gold bars commemorate the oval shape of traditional Japanese gold coinage issued between the 16th and 19th centuries.
'Twin-Coin' Gold Bar
Yoo Long Kim Kee (Thailand) was the first to manufacture a decorative cast gold bar to a precise weight through injecting gold into an enclosed mould under pressure. The Exhibition displays an experimental 1 baht gold bar, described as a ‘twin-coin’ gold bar, which was manufactured in 1992.
'Gold Leaf' Gold Bars
Widely used by Vietnamese refugees during the Vietnam war are the “Gold Leaf” gold bars. From the 1930s right up until 1975 these ultra thin bars were manufactured all over Vietnam. Being so thin they were easily hidden in clothing, placed between the soles of shoes and rolled up into narrow tubes. The standard “Gold Leaf” gold bar weighs around 15 g.
'Gold Fillet' Gold Bars
'Gold Fillet' gold bars, manufactured from thin rolled gold strips, are produced mainly for display purposes to demonstrate the official stamps of 400 oz or 12.5 kg gold bars. They illustrate the official stamps and other markings which appear only on London Good Delivery 400 oz gold bars.
Pendant & Double Pendant Gold Bars
Degussa (Germany) is recorded as the first among accredited manufacturers to have manufactured in 1978 a minted gold bar in an unconventional (hexagonal) shape, incorporating a hole so it can be used as a pendant. This concept was expanded by Pamp Suisse in 1984, with the production of minted gold bars in a number of unusual shapes. These are still around and can sometimes be bought from gold dealers and jewellers. In 1996, Pamp (Switzerland) launched the ‘double-pendant’ gold bars in the Middle East. These are available 10 gram, 7.5 gram and 5 gram with two inner shapes: heart and circular design.
Bank Gold Bars
Some banks have issued minted gold bars, marked with their own name but manufactured by an external manufacturer. In Europe and Brazil, minted ‘bank’ gold bars are widely available
Commemorative Gold Bars
Many countries commission the manufacture of Commemorative gold bars, Most notably Degussa (Germany) and Degussa (Brazil). The Chinese have also issued commemorative gold bars of Tuan Tuan and Yuan Yuan bars commemorating important national or international events. The minting of ‘commemorative’ gold bars, incorporating the mark of the accredited manufacturer, is not yet widespread but a selection of commemorative gold bars are displayed.
Heart Gold Bars
Innovative 'heart' gold bars, defined as heart-shaped or incorporating a heart design, were first made by Pamp SA in 1994, the outcome of a World Gold Council initiative in Singapore. The ‘heart’ gold bars of ARY Traders (UAE), launched in 1997, have aroused much interest in UAE, Pakistan and India and the Exhibition displays ‘heart’ gold bars from both manufacturers.
Kinegold Bars™
Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS), through its subsidiary refinery, Argor-Heraeus SA, has applied a KINEGRAM™ as a security device to the reverse of its minted gold bars since December 1993. This new gold bar is called kinegold bar™. KINEGRAM™ is the trade mark of the security device developed by Landis & Gyr Communications.
Bas-Relief Gold Bar
Buan Hua Long (Thailand) marks its standard 5, 10 and 25 baht gold bars in bas-relief. This is done when the bars are cast. The marks are carved into the base of the gold bar mould and formed as soon as the molten gold is poured into the mould eliminating the need for conventional marking tools: dies, punches and hammers.
Cartoon Gold Bars
Even cartoon gold bars are available. Pamp (Switzerland) introduced designs in 1996, from Warner Bros such as Tweety and Bugs Bunny, and, later, in 1997, from Disney, Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck.
Spanish Gold Bars
SEMPSA (Spain) has manufactured a 50 gram bar in the shape of a brick'. It is possibly the only minted gold bar among accredited gold bar manufacturers worldwide to have tapered sides, closely resembling the shape of typical large 400 oz or 12.5 kg London Good Delivery gold bars.
'Dore' Gold Bars
Most major gold mines process their gold-bearing ore at the site of the mine, producing low purity 'dore' gold bars. These rough gold bars are sent to gold refineries for upgrading into tradeable gold bars of high purity (99.5% or more). ‘Dore’ gold bars are normally quite large, some weighing as much as 25 kg. They are mainly used for transporting gold and not for trade.
'Garimpo' Dore
'Garimpo' dore gold bars are made by 'Garimpeiros', Brazilian peasants who independently mine gold in the Amazon jungle. Brazil was the world’s major source of newly-mined gold in the 18th century and still produces around 75 tonnes each year.
Gold Manufacturers & Refiners
Here we have a list of the world gold manufacturers and refiners. They are listed by country and in alphabetical order. Sometimes a gold bar might bear more than one assay stamp. In that case the lower value stamp is the one taken.
Disclaimer: As manufacturers and refiners come and go and various countries are subject to political, economic and other upheavals from time to time, there is no guarantee that any of the following are still operational although it is expected that most are. It is suggested that one does one’s own due diligence and checks out the manufacturer or refiner of one’s choice before approaching any to buy gold.
What is a Gold Bar
All gold is measured in troy ounces and the purity is measured in karats (not to be confused with the weight measurement of carats for diamonds), and comes in a variety of forms sizes and weights. The definition of a gold bar is considered to be:
"A bar of gold made by a recognized bar manufacturer regardless of shape and size and upon which is reported the exact weight and purity of the gold as well as a registration number."
The larger bars are called ingots and are made by casting. That is poring molten gold into moulds. The smaller bars are made by pressing gold strips with a huge multi tonne stamp much in the same way gold coins are made. These are usually called biscuits, although not so crunchy. All bars of gold, regardless of size, should have stamped on them, the weight, the size and the manufacturers stamp. Also a registration number that corresponds with a certificate, which should also accompany every bar.
The advantage of smaller bars is of course the convenience. Gold is heavy and toting around 400 ounce bars is not for everyone. A couple of ounces of gold can be carried around in a pocket however. Smaller bars are easier to buy and sell due to the lower cost involved they are easier to store and transport. The disadvantage is the price. They carry a higher premium over the value of the gold due to the costs involved in manufacture.
The advantage of buying larger bars or ingots is that the premium is considerably lower per ounce and usually a fraction above the spot price of gold for the day of the sale. The disadvantages of course are the shipping and storing considerations. They are much more difficult to move around and store due to their weight. It is also harder to sell a larger bar or ingot than a smaller one due to the shipping, security and costs involved. In fact most of the larger ingots are stored in bank vaults around the world and the ownership is simply transferred by paper. The gold itself is rarely moved.
Types of Gold Bars
In 2008, the Bank of England Museum hosted the International Gold Bars Collection. Here all the various types of gold bars were displayed. There were literally hundreds of these from the basic 400 ounce bars to donuts and double pendants to fillets of wafer thin gold bars. Many of the most common bars which, with a little searching, you can find are described here.
400 ounce or 12.5 kg Gold Bar
There are about 55 active manufacturers worldwide whose 400 ounce or 12.5 kg gold bars are known and accepted internationally as London Good Delivery. All 400 ounce London Good Delivery gold bars weigh between 350 ounces and 430 ounces with a minimum gold purity of 99.5%. About 150,000 are made each year
Kilogold Bars
The Kilogold bar (1000 grams) is popular among investors and fabricators being traded at a low premium above the spot price of gold and is probably the world’s most widely traded small gold bar.
Most Kilogold bars have a flat international shape, but many investors and fabricators in Europe prefer traditional Kilogold bars in the shape of a brick.
'Tezabi' Gold Bars
These roughcast gold bars are manufactured in Pakistan by the thousand in small backyard gold bar manufacturers. They are to a theoretical 99.9% purity. The gold bars are not manufactured to any specific weight but are usually around 99.9% pure. The size can depend on the amount of gold available to the manufacturer as they are usually made from old gold or melted down gold jewelery.
You often find that the Tezabi will resemble some of the earliest known gold coins made by the Lydian kings of Asia Minor in the 7th century BC. The method used by Pakistanis in the manufacture of Tezabi gold bars is not believed to have changed in over 2,000 years. The Exhibition displays Tezabi gold bars manufactured by Saleh Mohammed in Pakistan.
Tael Gold Bars
A tael is more widely known as a Chinese unit of weight. One tael is equivalent to 1.2 ounces or 37.4 grams. Tael gold bars, which are cast not pressed, ranging from 1 tael to 10 taels, and are widely traded in Chinese-speaking countries, such as Hong Kong and Taiwan.
Cast tael gold bars are manufactured in 3 shapes: 'biscuits', 'doughnuts' and 'boats' The 'boat' shape is known to have been used for silver and other Chinese coinage as far back as the Han dynasty (206 BC - 220 AD) so it is not unexpected that gold 'boats' should be made also.
The most popular is the 5 Tael 'biscuit' cast gold bar, 6 onces or 187 grams. these gold bars, manufactured in Hong Kong by the Chinese Gold & Silver Exchange (founded in 1910), are traded in large quantities. Minted tael gold bars, normally made outside Hong Kong, are also available.
Lastly, the Tael gold bars, known as 'donuts', are available in smaller sizes with a hole in the center. This makes it easy for the donut gold bars to be securely stacked or bound together with string.
Baht Gold Bars
The baht is the unit of weight in Thailand. The most popular gold bar here is the 10 baht gold bar. This is usually 4.9 ounces or 150.4 grams and is 96.5 percent pure gold.
Tola Gold Bars
The tola is the Indian unit of weight. The most popular cast gold bar being the 10 tola equal to 3.75 ounces or 116.64 grams in weight. These are very popular with over two million cast each year in Europe, imported and widely traded in such places as the Middle East, India, Pakistan and Singapore.
The ten-tola bar is distinctive in that it has no serial number and is often used for smuggling. The edges are round rather than sharp and so are an ideal for smuggling, inside a smuggler’s body. Round tola gold bars very form part of 'marriage necklaces' weighing over 500 grams in Pakistan where they are very popular.
Chi Gold Bars
The chi is a Vietnamese unit of weight. 1 chi weighs 3.75 grams. 10 chi (or 1 cay or 1 luong) weighs 37.5 grams. Pamp (Switzerland) was the first among the accredited manufacturers to produce a range of chi denominated minted gold bars for Vietnam.
Decorative Gold Bars
Prior to 1980 gold bars were rather plain. Then decorated, even hologramed gold bars began to make their appearance. The manufacture of decorative gold bars is dominated mainly by manufacturers in Switzerland, Germany and Brazil with Pamp Suisse(Switzerland) pioneering multi-coloured hologram designs to minted gold bars in the 1990s. These gold bars are distributed worldwide and are very popular in the Middle East.
'Rainbow' Gold Bars
Mitsubishi (Japan), traditionally with a finger in very pie, is the pioneer manufacturer of multi-coloured ‘rainbow’ gold bars. This process produces various karat gold tones resulting in an infinite variety of gold patterns. The 'Rainbow' gold bar purity is set at 75 percent or 19 karat gold
Fine Gold Cards
Mitsubishi also pioneered fine gold business cards in the 1980s. These gold cards are very popular in Japan to impress VIP clients. Multi-coloured printed designs are available on the very thin sheet cards available from under 200 dollars each. Gold business cars up to 1000 g are available but the most popular and common card is the one gram gold card. They are available all over Japan as well as on the net by Mitsubishi.
'Yin-Yang' Gold Bars
Ishifuku, in Japan, have created to unusual kidney shaped gold bars representing the harmony of opposites in the Zen philosophy.
'Koban' Gold Bars
Tokuriki Honten, Also in Japan, has been manufacturing the ‘Koban’ gold bars since the early 1960s. These range in weight from 5 grams up to 50 grams. These gold bars commemorate the oval shape of traditional Japanese gold coinage issued between the 16th and 19th centuries.
'Twin-Coin' Gold Bar
Yoo Long Kim Kee (Thailand) was the first to manufacture a decorative cast gold bar to a precise weight through injecting gold into an enclosed mould under pressure. The Exhibition displays an experimental 1 baht gold bar, described as a ‘twin-coin’ gold bar, which was manufactured in 1992.
'Gold Leaf' Gold Bars
Widely used by Vietnamese refugees during the Vietnam war are the “Gold Leaf” gold bars. From the 1930s right up until 1975 these ultra thin bars were manufactured all over Vietnam. Being so thin they were easily hidden in clothing, placed between the soles of shoes and rolled up into narrow tubes. The standard “Gold Leaf” gold bar weighs around 15 g.
'Gold Fillet' Gold Bars
'Gold Fillet' gold bars, manufactured from thin rolled gold strips, are produced mainly for display purposes to demonstrate the official stamps of 400 oz or 12.5 kg gold bars. They illustrate the official stamps and other markings which appear only on London Good Delivery 400 oz gold bars.
Pendant & Double Pendant Gold Bars
Degussa (Germany) is recorded as the first among accredited manufacturers to have manufactured in 1978 a minted gold bar in an unconventional (hexagonal) shape, incorporating a hole so it can be used as a pendant. This concept was expanded by Pamp Suisse in 1984, with the production of minted gold bars in a number of unusual shapes. These are still around and can sometimes be bought from gold dealers and jewellers. In 1996, Pamp (Switzerland) launched the ‘double-pendant’ gold bars in the Middle East. These are available 10 gram, 7.5 gram and 5 gram with two inner shapes: heart and circular design.
Bank Gold Bars
Some banks have issued minted gold bars, marked with their own name but manufactured by an external manufacturer. In Europe and Brazil, minted ‘bank’ gold bars are widely available
Commemorative Gold Bars
Many countries commission the manufacture of Commemorative gold bars, Most notably Degussa (Germany) and Degussa (Brazil). The Chinese have also issued commemorative gold bars of Tuan Tuan and Yuan Yuan bars commemorating important national or international events. The minting of ‘commemorative’ gold bars, incorporating the mark of the accredited manufacturer, is not yet widespread but a selection of commemorative gold bars are displayed.
Heart Gold Bars
Innovative 'heart' gold bars, defined as heart-shaped or incorporating a heart design, were first made by Pamp SA in 1994, the outcome of a World Gold Council initiative in Singapore. The ‘heart’ gold bars of ARY Traders (UAE), launched in 1997, have aroused much interest in UAE, Pakistan and India and the Exhibition displays ‘heart’ gold bars from both manufacturers.
Kinegold Bars™
Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS), through its subsidiary refinery, Argor-Heraeus SA, has applied a KINEGRAM™ as a security device to the reverse of its minted gold bars since December 1993. This new gold bar is called kinegold bar™. KINEGRAM™ is the trade mark of the security device developed by Landis & Gyr Communications.
Bas-Relief Gold Bar
Buan Hua Long (Thailand) marks its standard 5, 10 and 25 baht gold bars in bas-relief. This is done when the bars are cast. The marks are carved into the base of the gold bar mould and formed as soon as the molten gold is poured into the mould eliminating the need for conventional marking tools: dies, punches and hammers.
Cartoon Gold Bars
Even cartoon gold bars are available. Pamp (Switzerland) introduced designs in 1996, from Warner Bros such as Tweety and Bugs Bunny, and, later, in 1997, from Disney, Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck.
Spanish Gold Bars
SEMPSA (Spain) has manufactured a 50 gram bar in the shape of a brick'. It is possibly the only minted gold bar among accredited gold bar manufacturers worldwide to have tapered sides, closely resembling the shape of typical large 400 oz or 12.5 kg London Good Delivery gold bars.
'Dore' Gold Bars
Most major gold mines process their gold-bearing ore at the site of the mine, producing low purity 'dore' gold bars. These rough gold bars are sent to gold refineries for upgrading into tradeable gold bars of high purity (99.5% or more). ‘Dore’ gold bars are normally quite large, some weighing as much as 25 kg. They are mainly used for transporting gold and not for trade.
'Garimpo' Dore
'Garimpo' dore gold bars are made by 'Garimpeiros', Brazilian peasants who independently mine gold in the Amazon jungle. Brazil was the world’s major source of newly-mined gold in the 18th century and still produces around 75 tonnes each year.
Gold Manufacturers & Refiners
Here we have a list of the world gold manufacturers and refiners. They are listed by country and in alphabetical order. Sometimes a gold bar might bear more than one assay stamp. In that case the lower value stamp is the one taken.
Disclaimer: As manufacturers and refiners come and go and various countries are subject to political, economic and other upheavals from time to time, there is no guarantee that any of the following are still operational although it is expected that most are. It is suggested that one does one’s own due diligence and checks out the manufacturer or refiner of one’s choice before approaching any to buy gold.
Tuesday 21 April 2009
Forex Trade tips for 21-24 April 2009
CURRENCY CURRENT BIAS POTENTIAL STRATEGY
EUR/USD (Medium Term) Buy EUR/USD at 1.2947. Stop at 1.2840. Profit targets at 1.3151, 1.3317.
GBP/USD (Medium Term) Wait until a new pattern emerges.
USD/JPY (Medium Term) Buy USD/JPY at 96.50. Stop at 95.76. Profit targets at 97.59, 98.41.
USD/CHF (Medium Term) Wait until a new pattern emerges.
USD/CAD (Medium Term) Wait until a new pattern emerges.
AUD/USD (Medium Term) Wait until a new pattern emerges.
NZD/USD (Medium Term) Wait until a new pattern emerges.
EUR/USD (Medium Term) Buy EUR/USD at 1.2947. Stop at 1.2840. Profit targets at 1.3151, 1.3317.
GBP/USD (Medium Term) Wait until a new pattern emerges.
USD/JPY (Medium Term) Buy USD/JPY at 96.50. Stop at 95.76. Profit targets at 97.59, 98.41.
USD/CHF (Medium Term) Wait until a new pattern emerges.
USD/CAD (Medium Term) Wait until a new pattern emerges.
AUD/USD (Medium Term) Wait until a new pattern emerges.
NZD/USD (Medium Term) Wait until a new pattern emerges.
Tuesday 7 April 2009
USD/JPY-market strategy can be a buy from the level 98.30
Technical oscillators supporting the bullish trend for the currency pair
To strengthen our analysis; we use many other indicators, starting with MACD (Moving Averages convergence divergence); we notice the MACD lines after a bullish crossover above the zero line. In order to find the power of the market, we use RSI (Relative Strength Index).With RSI; we can determine that the market is in a bullish direction.
To strengthen our analysis; we use many other indicators, starting with MACD (Moving Averages convergence divergence); we notice the MACD lines after a bullish crossover above the zero line. In order to find the power of the market, we use RSI (Relative Strength Index).With RSI; we can determine that the market is in a bullish direction.
EUR/USD-market strategy can be a sell from the level 1.3490$
Technical oscillators supporting the bearish trend for the currency pair
To strengthen our analysis; we use many other indicators, starting with MACD (Moving Averages convergence divergence); we notice the MACD lines after a bearish crossover above the zero line. In order to find the power of the market, we use RSI (Relative Strength Index).With RSI; we can determine that the market is in a bearish direction.
To strengthen our analysis; we use many other indicators, starting with MACD (Moving Averages convergence divergence); we notice the MACD lines after a bearish crossover above the zero line. In order to find the power of the market, we use RSI (Relative Strength Index).With RSI; we can determine that the market is in a bearish direction.
Wednesday 1 April 2009
trend remains down and rallies should be shorted for now on the EUR/USD and Gold
Yesterday saw a bit of recovery from Monday's selloffs, but the trend remains down and rallies should be shorted for now on the EUR/USD and Gold. The stock market situation is a bit more tricky,
personally im looking for a bit further of a selloff into stronger support, then a potentially large rally. Timing these perfectly is tough, but the swings are large enough where I think the best way I can trade these markets is with position trades scaling in and out with an overall bias, which is why my signals have shifted from more scalping advice to position trading and market direction advice. Yesterday, we saw the Japanese Tankan make a nice 50 pip move higher on the yen crosses when the number came in at decade lows, so I like the idea of looking to trade this number next month. AU Retail Sales got overshadowed by some back and forth rumormongering about the Obama administration and GM, but still managed about a 30 pip move with somewhat healthy retrace/reattempt type price action following the release. For Wednesday:
personally im looking for a bit further of a selloff into stronger support, then a potentially large rally. Timing these perfectly is tough, but the swings are large enough where I think the best way I can trade these markets is with position trades scaling in and out with an overall bias, which is why my signals have shifted from more scalping advice to position trading and market direction advice. Yesterday, we saw the Japanese Tankan make a nice 50 pip move higher on the yen crosses when the number came in at decade lows, so I like the idea of looking to trade this number next month. AU Retail Sales got overshadowed by some back and forth rumormongering about the Obama administration and GM, but still managed about a 30 pip move with somewhat healthy retrace/reattempt type price action following the release. For Wednesday:
Friday 27 March 2009
Equity traders gone Forex Trading on the Up
Spread betters have been reacting to the extreme market volatility by changing their betting habits.
In January, IG Group said currency and index bets had become more popular among its clients than the more traditional trades on individual stocks.
“The big equity traders have disappeared and they have been replaced by big forex and indices traders,” IG Group chief executive Tim Howkins said in January, as he reported strong profits for the company.
Spread betting firms have been profiting from the increased market volatility, reporting an influx of new clients in the past few months.
Both London Capital Group and IG Group said this year that profits have increased and client numbers have gone up.
In January, IG Group said currency and index bets had become more popular among its clients than the more traditional trades on individual stocks.
“The big equity traders have disappeared and they have been replaced by big forex and indices traders,” IG Group chief executive Tim Howkins said in January, as he reported strong profits for the company.
Spread betting firms have been profiting from the increased market volatility, reporting an influx of new clients in the past few months.
Both London Capital Group and IG Group said this year that profits have increased and client numbers have gone up.
Wednesday 25 March 2009
EUR/JPY ON THE UP
24/03/2009 – EUR/JPY – By breaking out cleanly above the key 131.00 price action on EUR/JPY, has tentatively confirmed the potential for further upside momentum. The 131.51 level should now serve as support where it previously served as resistance on at least three separate occasions before Monday’s break.
Retracement and consolidation can be expected after the breakout, but if price is able to follow-through further and break above the 134.50 level, which represents the high thus far after the 131.00 breakout, a major resistance target to the upside resides around the 137.00 region.
Retracement and consolidation can be expected after the breakout, but if price is able to follow-through further and break above the 134.50 level, which represents the high thus far after the 131.00 breakout, a major resistance target to the upside resides around the 137.00 region.
Tuesday 24 March 2009
Is the bear market over?
Is the bear market over, sentiment is all in the markets today , but also there is the moment when sitting on your hands makes them start to itch, the itch spreads around the world through what Edgar Cayce called the Cosmic Consciousness.
Is now the time to start buying instead of selling?
we are looking at the rise of GBP/USD 1.4711 today.
I see a steady rise and think long term its strength will hold , consider
where was its position last year 1.997 ! thats a lot of profit to make if you hold your nerve....
Is now the time to start buying instead of selling?
we are looking at the rise of GBP/USD 1.4711 today.
I see a steady rise and think long term its strength will hold , consider
where was its position last year 1.997 ! thats a lot of profit to make if you hold your nerve....
Sunday 22 March 2009
Most important Forex Trading Indicators
What are the most important indicators in Forex?
In my humble opinion they are Moving Averages and Relative Strength Index
When these to are combined on a live trading screen the information you will have infront of you allows the trader to see how much of any cuurency is being bought and how much is being sold ( in percentage terms ) plus the strength of that buying or selling current,
To take full advantage of that buying or selling current you need to get in (make your trade) 2/3 rds on the upswell and get out (close the trade) before the crest
Why close the trade before the crest? simply because tades have a habit of falling back just before they hit top momentum which would lose you money.
So the trick is to get in make a profit and get out ( don't stay in too long or you'll get stung )
The moving average indicator combines with the RSI gives you all you need so long as you know how to read the two charts combined so you get CLEAR SIGNALS
my course FOREX4PROFIT tells you exactly how to do this and more.
In my humble opinion they are Moving Averages and Relative Strength Index
When these to are combined on a live trading screen the information you will have infront of you allows the trader to see how much of any cuurency is being bought and how much is being sold ( in percentage terms ) plus the strength of that buying or selling current,
To take full advantage of that buying or selling current you need to get in (make your trade) 2/3 rds on the upswell and get out (close the trade) before the crest
Why close the trade before the crest? simply because tades have a habit of falling back just before they hit top momentum which would lose you money.
So the trick is to get in make a profit and get out ( don't stay in too long or you'll get stung )
The moving average indicator combines with the RSI gives you all you need so long as you know how to read the two charts combined so you get CLEAR SIGNALS
my course FOREX4PROFIT tells you exactly how to do this and more.
Thursday 5 March 2009
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Thoroughly tested on "Live" accounts realised 90% profitable trades!
The Forex4Profit Package is a complete Manual. No Further Costs are involved
Unlike other Training Packages that can charge you up to $1000 a month!
Forex4Profit tells you the best times and the best days to trade,the best currencies to trade, e.t.c.
Forex4Profit tells you the Best Website to trade on Bar None : the website we use is the most user friendly , easy access site around and its FREE!
Forex4Profit tell you what what percentage of you account you MUST trade with and what percentage NEVER to trade with
"Let Me Introduce Myself my name is Chris Sheppard and I have been a Forex Trader Since the end of 2001. I was in a financial situation that i knew i could resolve with a forex, but didn't want to pay the usual extortionate fees most traing providers charge So over the next year or so i researched and researched until i had it sussed.Over this period i spent VAST AMOUNTS OF CASH on other systems that PROMISED : SECRET INSIDER TIPS ! . THEY ALL LET ME DOWN . Finally I found the EXACT WAY TO PROTECT MY INVESTMENT AND GUARANTEE PROFITS!! And i am now able to make exactly the same profits as very expensive performance services that would of cost me thousands in brokerage and other fees
, and i am now marketing and evolving the product" Forex4PROFIT.INFO October 2005.
Forex4Profit shows you how to locate the best currency to trade in seconds . The location is given by way of located reports in real time and EASILY UNDERSTOOD indicators.
I show you the two best information feeds to access online and How to Gain from the most reliable technical information around
Using the benefits of our system with its precise SELL / BUY Signals You cant go wrong
Thats why i offer a complete Before and After Sales Service
You can contact me at any time before or after your purchase with questions, queries, ideas and feedback. i will be delighted to hear from you. Contact by e-mail using the link above, Trade and Reseller enquiries welcome.
FOREX4PROFIT CD-ROM is AVAILABLE WITHIN 2 DAYS AFTER PAYMENT GOES THROUGH..No waiting around for WEEKS: . ALSO You will receive e-mail updates and new techniques every month.
FOREX 4 PROFITS PLATINUM:
GIVES IN DEPTH INFORMATION ON CD-ROM (DELIVERED IN 2 DAYS)
WHICH INCLUDES THE FULL MANUALS ABOVE PLUS!....,
DAILY TRADE GUIDES EMAILED TO YOU,
10 PIP PROFIT E-BOOK
I OFFER A FULL MONEY BACK GUARENTEE ON ALL PACKAGES IF AFTER ONE MONTH OF TRADING FOLLOWING THE FOREXBLASTER MANUALS YOU FAIL TO MAKE A PROFIT AT ANY TIME.
All packages come with full EMAIL Support at instantbusiness@hotmail.co.uk please email me anytime for more info or any questions on trading forex currency pairs you may have.
Please also remember that the Worlwide forex market is a 24 hour 6 days a week TRILLION DOLLAR business.
In becoming a Forex Trader you will join an Elite circle of independently wealthy citizens of the world.
No other Business, And you should see it as such, offers such freedom and such potential gains.
FOREX4PROFIT IS UNLIKE ANY OTHER BUSINESS OPPORTUNITY REPORT OR TRAINING PACKAGE
FOREX 4 PROFITS SIMPLY BEATS THE REST HANDS DOWN!
WHEN YOU ORDER YOU CAN CHOOSE EITHER THE CD VERSION OR INSTANT DOWNLOAD JUST LET ME KNOW WHICH YOU PREFER...THERE IS NO EXTRA COST FOR THE CD DISK
HAPPY TRADING..YOURS SINCERELY CHRIS SHEPPARD....SEE YOU ON THE OTHER SIDE.
Buy Now FOREX 4 PROFIT
MAKE PROFITS FROM DAY ONE
NO STOCK TO BUY / NO CUSTOMERS / NO OVERHEADS !
NO EXTRA HIDDEN COSTS OR MYSTERY JARGON
I LET YOU IN ON THE BIGGEST SECRET OF FINANCIAL INDEPENDENCE
Ultimate cash Forex Profit System
Simple to use idiot proof!
Announcing the pre release distribution of Forex4Profits Maximum Profits System, This System blows the head off the secrecy surrounding successfull financial independence :
Buy Now FOREX 4 PROFIT
If you SIMPLY follow This manual you can MAKE HUGE PROFITS from what is known as forex trading or day trading.
ANYONE can make huge profits
trading on the world currency markets.
With My Forex blaster system you will never make the mistakes that so many others have made over the years, Simply because EVERY step you should take is outline in these manuals
NOW You can just take the elevator to the BIG BUCKS!
Thoroughly tested on "Live" accounts realised 90% profitable trades!
The Forex4Profit Package is a complete Manual. No Further Costs are involved
Unlike other Training Packages that can charge you up to $1000 a month!
Forex4Profit tells you the best times and the best days to trade,the best currencies to trade, e.t.c.
Forex4Profit tells you the Best Website to trade on Bar None : the website we use is the most user friendly , easy access site around and its FREE!
Forex4Profit tell you what what percentage of you account you MUST trade with and what percentage NEVER to trade with
"Let Me Introduce Myself my name is Chris Sheppard and I have been a Forex Trader Since the end of 2001. I was in a financial situation that i knew i could resolve with a forex, but didn't want to pay the usual extortionate fees most traing providers charge So over the next year or so i researched and researched until i had it sussed.Over this period i spent VAST AMOUNTS OF CASH on other systems that PROMISED : SECRET INSIDER TIPS ! . THEY ALL LET ME DOWN . Finally I found the EXACT WAY TO PROTECT MY INVESTMENT AND GUARANTEE PROFITS!! And i am now able to make exactly the same profits as very expensive performance services that would of cost me thousands in brokerage and other fees
, and i am now marketing and evolving the product" Forex4PROFIT.INFO October 2005.
Forex4Profit shows you how to locate the best currency to trade in seconds . The location is given by way of located reports in real time and EASILY UNDERSTOOD indicators.
I show you the two best information feeds to access online and How to Gain from the most reliable technical information around
Using the benefits of our system with its precise SELL / BUY Signals You cant go wrong
Thats why i offer a complete Before and After Sales Service
You can contact me at any time before or after your purchase with questions, queries, ideas and feedback. i will be delighted to hear from you. Contact by e-mail using the link above, Trade and Reseller enquiries welcome.
FOREX4PROFIT CD-ROM is AVAILABLE WITHIN 2 DAYS AFTER PAYMENT GOES THROUGH..No waiting around for WEEKS: . ALSO You will receive e-mail updates and new techniques every month.
FOREX 4 PROFITS PLATINUM:
GIVES IN DEPTH INFORMATION ON CD-ROM (DELIVERED IN 2 DAYS)
WHICH INCLUDES THE FULL MANUALS ABOVE PLUS!....,
DAILY TRADE GUIDES EMAILED TO YOU,
10 PIP PROFIT E-BOOK
I OFFER A FULL MONEY BACK GUARENTEE ON ALL PACKAGES IF AFTER ONE MONTH OF TRADING FOLLOWING THE FOREXBLASTER MANUALS YOU FAIL TO MAKE A PROFIT AT ANY TIME.
All packages come with full EMAIL Support at instantbusiness@hotmail.co.uk please email me anytime for more info or any questions on trading forex currency pairs you may have.
Please also remember that the Worlwide forex market is a 24 hour 6 days a week TRILLION DOLLAR business.
In becoming a Forex Trader you will join an Elite circle of independently wealthy citizens of the world.
No other Business, And you should see it as such, offers such freedom and such potential gains.
FOREX4PROFIT IS UNLIKE ANY OTHER BUSINESS OPPORTUNITY REPORT OR TRAINING PACKAGE
FOREX 4 PROFITS SIMPLY BEATS THE REST HANDS DOWN!
WHEN YOU ORDER YOU CAN CHOOSE EITHER THE CD VERSION OR INSTANT DOWNLOAD JUST LET ME KNOW WHICH YOU PREFER...THERE IS NO EXTRA COST FOR THE CD DISK
HAPPY TRADING..YOURS SINCERELY CHRIS SHEPPARD....SEE YOU ON THE OTHER SIDE.
Buy Now FOREX 4 PROFIT
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