Forex Trading signals 05-06-09 forward to next week

The EUR/USD broke through 1.4100 to confirm the head and shoulders sell on the hourly, only to frustratingly rally back up as GBP continues to be the preferential sell.

At the moment, as long as the 1.4241 highs hold on EUR/USD, the bias should be short from here.

If those highs go I'd shift to neutral. If we do resume downside price action as we've seen on the GBP, the 1.3800 level is a likely medium term target. One big reason the GBP has been weak are rumors of Prime Minister Brown potentially resigning.

These rumors have been refuted by his office, but the markets definitely still smell blood. Pretty much all of the scheduled news on Thursday came out pretty vanilla without any big surprises with the exception of very strong UK Halifax house prices which made a very nice short term GBP strengthening move of 80 pips in 40 minutes.

0700 CAD Employment (-36.5 expected) - Last month's huge positive deviation created a surprisingly small selloff in the USD/CAD. On the one hand it seems as though CAD levels after news events have been frequently manipulated; however, CAD Employment is usually a very reliable indicator and one bad month shouldn't completely force us to sit on our hands here. A comprimise of trading a wider trigger than usual seems appropriate.
If it comes out at 0.0K or higher, USD/CAD should sell off 50 pips
If it comes out at -62K or lower, USD/CAD should rally 40+ pips

0830 US Nonfarm Payrolls (-520K expected) - We have not seen very large deviations on this report since December 2008. Because of that, we've gotten a lot of strange price action on the smaller deviations primarily due to large order flows that tend to follow this release. I recommend trading a wide 100K trigger and if it comes out closer to expected than that, or if there's a conflict with Unemployment Rate,

avoid taking long directional trades and simply look to scalp sell rallies and scalp buy sell offs into support.

Because we've seen some clear decoupling of EUR/USD, USD/JPY and EUR/JPY, it's hard to say which pair will have the best reaction on the news. My best guess is USD/JPY will be best for a quick news spike pop, but EUR/JPY will have the deepest, most sustainable move.
If it comes out at -420K or higher, EUR/JPY should rally 50+ pips
If it comes out at -620K or lower, EUR/JPY should sell off 50+ pips