We're seeing the risk aversion sentiment continue to weigh on markets, but we still haven't quite gotten that breakout lower yet to both fully confirm our outlook and accellerate things lower. The 875 level on the S&P 500 futures is the key level to watch while the 132 handle is the near term support to watch on the EUR/JPY. Please watch the video for a much more detailed look at EUR/USD, US equities and gold. Monday's German IFO came in lower than expected, but not low enough to hit our sell trigger, so the price action wasn't terribly strong. There are several news items due out Tuesday, but none are very tradable on currencies right now in my opinion. In the video I explain a bit about most of them and what they might bring to the table though. The next clearly tradable report is out Wednesday morning:
1000 Wednesday 5-27 US Existing Home Sales m/m (4.66M expected) - This indicator has performed quite well on the EUR/JPY when it hits a nice trigger.
If it comes out at 4.80M or higher, EUR/JPY should rally 50 pips or more
If it comes out at 4.52M or lower, EUR/JPY should sell off 50 pips or more
Tuesday 26 May 2009
Saturday 16 May 2009
ONLINE FOREX TRADING LOOK OUT FOR SCAMS
The easiest way to spot a forex scam is by its promises.
There’s no such thing as a high profit and low risk investment. Anyone who tells you there is is likely to be generating a few high profits for himself... and running the risk of going to jail. Really if there was an easy fool proof way to make unlimited money with no effort and no risk, then you can bet that the people doing it wouldn't share the secret for $99.99. Why would they bother..? They could train you for free if money wasn't an issue, or simple give out money to worthy causes, couldn't they..
IIf a forex deal looks too good to be true -- like anything -- it probably is.
Steer clear too of highly leveraged margin trading, at least when you’re starting to trade forex. As you can find yourself easily wiping out completely over small market movements.
Margins are similar to deposits. They let traders commit to larger deals in the future, and allow unscrupulous traders to gamble with other people’s money without fully explaining to them what they’re risking. An investor might believe that he or she has only risked $1,000 when in fact they’ve committed to a trade several times that figure. If the trade becomes unprofitable, the victims of such forex scams could find themselves with much larger losses than they anticipated.
Another sign that a trader might be looking to take you for a ride is if they claim that they can trade in the Interbank Market. This is a network of currency transactions involving banks and other large organizations. Because the volumes are much higher, prices can be higher too. It’s not usually the sort of place where small investors tend to trade so being told by a trader that he can put your money there is a little like buying a watch from a man in a bar: there’s a good chance the person you’re dealing with isn’t the most honest.
There’s no such thing as a high profit and low risk investment. Anyone who tells you there is is likely to be generating a few high profits for himself... and running the risk of going to jail. Really if there was an easy fool proof way to make unlimited money with no effort and no risk, then you can bet that the people doing it wouldn't share the secret for $99.99. Why would they bother..? They could train you for free if money wasn't an issue, or simple give out money to worthy causes, couldn't they..
IIf a forex deal looks too good to be true -- like anything -- it probably is.
Steer clear too of highly leveraged margin trading, at least when you’re starting to trade forex. As you can find yourself easily wiping out completely over small market movements.
Margins are similar to deposits. They let traders commit to larger deals in the future, and allow unscrupulous traders to gamble with other people’s money without fully explaining to them what they’re risking. An investor might believe that he or she has only risked $1,000 when in fact they’ve committed to a trade several times that figure. If the trade becomes unprofitable, the victims of such forex scams could find themselves with much larger losses than they anticipated.
Another sign that a trader might be looking to take you for a ride is if they claim that they can trade in the Interbank Market. This is a network of currency transactions involving banks and other large organizations. Because the volumes are much higher, prices can be higher too. It’s not usually the sort of place where small investors tend to trade so being told by a trader that he can put your money there is a little like buying a watch from a man in a bar: there’s a good chance the person you’re dealing with isn’t the most honest.
Wednesday 13 May 2009
forex trading for 13-05-09 3 day indicators
Hey folks,
Many USD pairs like the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD and some others are approaching some former high fibbonacci resistance on the daily chart. While the picture continues to highlight some nice bullish momentum, with many USD pairs overextended into resistance, it looks like a good setup for a short to medium term short. Watch the video for more details there. After pushing through 919, gold is looking potentially short term bullish, but the potential for a medium to long term significant decline is still quite palpable, so I'd play it with either a short term buy looking for the 935-950 range to take profits, or wait for a potential rally to that region to get short for a longer position/swing trade. Stocks are starting to exhibit signs of waning momentum and this time sentiment is really starting to flip a bit negative along with it. I think a 100 point or so pullback is inevitable on the S&P and with lower highs and lower lows on the hourly chart, I think it may be brewing even now.
Tuesday saw the UK Claimant Count Change released "accidentally" early in the NY session and came out much better than expected, although that did not benefit the GBP greatly. Because of that there is no 0430 EST release out of the UK, and all eyes will be focused on the 0530 BoE Inflation Report.
0530 BoE Inflation Report - The last 4 straight quarters have produced very large down moves on GBP on a consistent basis; however, the picture seems to be changing in the UK and this could really go either way. I'm expecting a little bit of early buying on GBP/USD early in the session, but it likely be met with some stiff selling heading into this report as people could fear some sobering projections. Fundamentally, there are 3 aspects to look at in this report:
Quantitative Easing Language - This is the main thing the market is looking for on this report. Reassurring language that makes it seem as though the Asset Purchases are working well and further expansions are not needed will be GBP bullish, while language either concerned about its effectiveness or hints that the program is likely to be expanded either further will be GBP bearish.
Growth and Inflation Forecasts - Very pessimistic language on growth and worries about deflation will lead to selling pressure while more optimistic outlooks on growth and more concern on inflation will likely lead to buying pressure.
0830 US Core Retail Sales (0.2% expected) - This should have a good reaction out of the yen crosses as it did last month, but I expect some prenews buying pressure on those pairs like EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY and AUD/JPY as many news items like these have been surprising to the upside and some speculators may want to get in on it early.
If it comes out at 1.0% or higher, EUR/JPY should rally by 40-50 pips (if there is very noticable prenews buying though, those gains may be shortlived)
If it comse out at -0.8% or lower, EUR/JPY should sell off by 40-50 pips regardless of whether prenews buying materialized.
FOREX TRADING SYSTEM
Many USD pairs like the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD and some others are approaching some former high fibbonacci resistance on the daily chart. While the picture continues to highlight some nice bullish momentum, with many USD pairs overextended into resistance, it looks like a good setup for a short to medium term short. Watch the video for more details there. After pushing through 919, gold is looking potentially short term bullish, but the potential for a medium to long term significant decline is still quite palpable, so I'd play it with either a short term buy looking for the 935-950 range to take profits, or wait for a potential rally to that region to get short for a longer position/swing trade. Stocks are starting to exhibit signs of waning momentum and this time sentiment is really starting to flip a bit negative along with it. I think a 100 point or so pullback is inevitable on the S&P and with lower highs and lower lows on the hourly chart, I think it may be brewing even now.
Tuesday saw the UK Claimant Count Change released "accidentally" early in the NY session and came out much better than expected, although that did not benefit the GBP greatly. Because of that there is no 0430 EST release out of the UK, and all eyes will be focused on the 0530 BoE Inflation Report.
0530 BoE Inflation Report - The last 4 straight quarters have produced very large down moves on GBP on a consistent basis; however, the picture seems to be changing in the UK and this could really go either way. I'm expecting a little bit of early buying on GBP/USD early in the session, but it likely be met with some stiff selling heading into this report as people could fear some sobering projections. Fundamentally, there are 3 aspects to look at in this report:
Quantitative Easing Language - This is the main thing the market is looking for on this report. Reassurring language that makes it seem as though the Asset Purchases are working well and further expansions are not needed will be GBP bullish, while language either concerned about its effectiveness or hints that the program is likely to be expanded either further will be GBP bearish.
Growth and Inflation Forecasts - Very pessimistic language on growth and worries about deflation will lead to selling pressure while more optimistic outlooks on growth and more concern on inflation will likely lead to buying pressure.
0830 US Core Retail Sales (0.2% expected) - This should have a good reaction out of the yen crosses as it did last month, but I expect some prenews buying pressure on those pairs like EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY and AUD/JPY as many news items like these have been surprising to the upside and some speculators may want to get in on it early.
If it comes out at 1.0% or higher, EUR/JPY should rally by 40-50 pips (if there is very noticable prenews buying though, those gains may be shortlived)
If it comse out at -0.8% or lower, EUR/JPY should sell off by 40-50 pips regardless of whether prenews buying materialized.
FOREX TRADING SYSTEM
Monday 11 May 2009
Down trend on long term looks certain for U.S. Dollar
mon : may: 11th--2009
Fundamental The EUR/USD opened around 1.3640 in Asia and moved up to 1.3670 very quickly to trigger stops above 1.3650. The price action reversed following a report in the UK Telegraph saying that HSBC lost 5 BLN USD in Q1 2009 in their US Household mortgage lending operation. Technical Technical analysis show us the euro may continue its uptrend as MACD giving us a strong buying signal by crossing MACD line to the signal line and RSI is in a clear uptrend. Bollinger gives us a bullish signal
Fundamental The EUR/USD opened around 1.3640 in Asia and moved up to 1.3670 very quickly to trigger stops above 1.3650. The price action reversed following a report in the UK Telegraph saying that HSBC lost 5 BLN USD in Q1 2009 in their US Household mortgage lending operation. Technical Technical analysis show us the euro may continue its uptrend as MACD giving us a strong buying signal by crossing MACD line to the signal line and RSI is in a clear uptrend. Bollinger gives us a bullish signal
Wednesday 6 May 2009
Trick to knowing where the top and bottom on forex
Before entering any trade on forex there is are numerous indicators to work out that can help or hinder your desision making process. BUT to make it simple you should simply check the buying and selling ratio, this will rise when the wave of trade is followed by the masses then decline before a reverse.
get in the trade as the trade amounts begin to slip to make a killing on the pullback or recovery.
get in the trade as the trade amounts begin to slip to make a killing on the pullback or recovery.
Friday 1 May 2009
next 7 day Economic trading Indicators from 04-05-2009
next 7 day Economic trading Indicators from 04-05-2009
Monday 04-05-09
UK: Nationwide House Prices, 09:30 BBA Loans Approved
EU: 07:10 Eurozone GfK Consumer Confidence
Results
EU: Merck KGaA (Germany), Krones (Germany), Atlas Copco (Sweden)
US: Verizon, Check Point Software, Corning, Qualcomm
Tuesday 05-05-09 Economic Indicators
EU: German CPI, German European Harmonised CPI, 07:45 French Consumer Confidence, 07:45 French Housing Permits, 07:45 French Housing Starts, 09:00 Italian Retail Sales
US: 12:45 ICSC-UBS Retail Chain Store Sales, 13:55 Redbook, 15:00 Conference Board Consumer Confidence, 15:00 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, 22:00 ABC News Consumer Confidence
Results
UK: BP, Reckitt Benckiser, Whitbread, Brown Group, Zincox Resources
IRE: Icon
EU: Vestas Wind Systems (Denmark), Daimler (Germany), Deutsche Bank (Germany), SGL Carbon (Germany), DSM (Netherlands), KPN (Netherlands), Yara International (Norway), Fabege (Sweden), Svenska Cellulosa (Sweden), Svenska Handelsbanken (Sweden)
US: Pfizer, Franklin Resources, Bristol Myers, Cabot Oil & Gas, Sun Microsystems, Jacob Engineering, Level 3 Communications, Massey Energy, Range Resources, Southwestern Energy, Tellabs, Unisys, United States Steel
Wednesday 06-05-09
IRE: 11:00 New Private Car Registrations, 11:00 New Vehicle Registrations, 11:00 Total Persons on Live Register, 11:00 Trade Balance, 11:00 Unemployment Rate
EU: 08:00 Spanish Retail Sales, 09:00 Eurozone Bloomberg Retail PMI, 09:00 Eurozone M3 Money Supply, 09:00 French Bloomberg Retail PMI, 09:00 German Bloomberg Retail PMI, 10:00 Eurozone European Commission Economic Sentiment, 10:00 Eurozone European Commission Common Factor in Industry, 10:00 Eurozone Consumer and Economic Confidence
US: 13:30 GDP, 13:30 GDP Price Index, 13:30 Personal Consumption, 19:15 Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision, 15:35 Oil Inventories
Results
UK: Home Retail Group, Royal Dutch Shell, ARM Holdings, Burberry, Fenner, Lookers, Punch Taverns, Wolfson Electronics
EU: DSV (Denmark), Novozymes (Denmark), Sanofi-Aventis (France), STMicroelectronics (France), Bayer (Germany), Sap (Germany), Siemens (Germany), Volkswagen (Germany), Continental (Germany), Vossloh (Germany), Norsk Hydro (Norway), Renewable Energy (Norway), Nordea Bank (Sweden), Sandvik (Sweden)
US: Barrick Gold, Akamai Technologies, Amkor Tech, Baker Hughes, Citrix Systems, Express Scripts, General Dynamics, Hess Corporation, Human Genome, IAC/Interactivecorp, JDS Uniphase, LSI, Moody, MGIC Investment, Starbucks, Southern, Questar, Time Warner, Visa, Varian Medical
Thursday 07-5-09
UK: GfK Consumer Confidence
EU: Eurozone Total Housing, German Retail Sales, 07:00 German ILO Unemployment Rate, 07:45 French PPI, 08:55 German Unemployment Rate, 10:00 Eurozone Flash Estimate of CPI, 10:00 Eurozone Unemployment, 10:00 Italian European Harmonised CPI
US: 13:30 Employment Cost Index, 13:30 Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims, 13:30 Personal Income and Expenditures, 14:45 Chicago PMI, 15:00 Total Milwaukee Index, 15.35 Gas Inventories, 21.30 Money Supply
Results
UK: Astra Zeneca, BG Group, BSkyB, Shire, Smith & Nephew, Heritage Oil, Trifast
IRE: Independent News
EU: Novo Nordisk (Denmark), BASF (Germany), Fresenius Medical Care (Germany), Fresenius (Germany), Infineon Technologies (Germany), Deutsche Lufthansa (Germany), Man (Germany), Hugo Boss (Germany), Wacker Chemie (Germany), Aker Solutions (Norway), Fred Olsen Energy (Norway), Ericsson (Sweden), Swedish Match (Sweden)
US: General Motors, Proctor and Gamble, Exxon Mobil, Apache, Cabelas, CIGNA, Colgate Palmolive, Comcast, Cummins, Covidien, Dow Chemical Co, Eastman Kodak, Fiserv, Hartford Finanical Services, International Paper, Microchip Tech, Motorola, Noble Energy, Newmont Mining, NYSE Euronext, PerkinElmer, Q Logic, Strayer Education, Tyco, VIACOM, Williams Companies, Wynn Resorts
Friday 08-05-09
UK: 09:30 Bank of England Mortgage Applications, 09:30 M4 Money Supply, 09:30 Markit Manufacturing PMI, 09:30 Net Lending to Individuals
IRE: 11:00 Retail Sales
US: Auto Sales, 15:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 15:00 Manufacturers New Orders, 15:00 University of Michigan Survey
Results
UK: Colt Telecom
US: Chevron, Consolidated Edison, Nicor, Simon Property Group
Press Roundup
In a move that is likely to become more frequent in the coming months, two of Britain’s best known entrepreneurs, Hugh Osmond and Peter Hargreaves, are considering leaving Britain in protest against Alistair Darling’s new 50% tax rate, reveals the Sunday Times.
The Sunday Times breaks the news that Northern Rock is to be sold off by the end of the year under a fast-track government plan to start clawing back some of the hundreds of billions of pounds of taxpayers’ money ploughed into the banking sector.
Senior bankers and board members at Deutsche Bank are considering their positions after heated rows over the decision not to pay bonuses at the group, according to the Sunday Independent.
The Irish Times reports that Denis O’Brien, Independent News & Media’s second-biggest shareholder, believes that there is only a “50-50 chance” of the media group refinancing a €200 million bond that is due to be paid on May 19th.
The Irish Independent understands that a number of rival airlines and private equity firms are eyeing up Aer Lingus with a view to becoming a strategic partner with the carrier.
Disclaimer
The comment in this article is the personal opinion of the author(s) and not paddypowertrader. The content does not constitute financial, investment or tax advice. You are advised to discuss your specific requirements with an independent financial adviser prior to entering into any bet. paddypowertrader is not responsible and disclaims any and all liability for the content of comments written by contributors to the article, and the content of any third party sites linked from this article
If you aren't a paddypowertrader client or if you would like to receive the Weekly Wrap at a new email address, please enter it below.
All BlogsCar Trouble For Stocks
A late pre-mayday slump yesterday saw the US market give back earlier healthy gains as traders worried over the governments heavy handed and ham fisted handling of the Chrysler saga and the shift back in focus to GM ... Read more
Economic Indicators To Look Out For
Month End Madness
Spread Trading Compared To Share Trading
Stocks Piggyback On The Fed
Dollar Falls As Equity Rally Continues
What Next For The U.S. Recession?
See all blogs
Trader Academy
For in depth tutorials and step by step
guides to spread betting visit our
trader academy.
Visit the Trader Academy
Monday 04-05-09
UK: Nationwide House Prices, 09:30 BBA Loans Approved
EU: 07:10 Eurozone GfK Consumer Confidence
Results
EU: Merck KGaA (Germany), Krones (Germany), Atlas Copco (Sweden)
US: Verizon, Check Point Software, Corning, Qualcomm
Tuesday 05-05-09 Economic Indicators
EU: German CPI, German European Harmonised CPI, 07:45 French Consumer Confidence, 07:45 French Housing Permits, 07:45 French Housing Starts, 09:00 Italian Retail Sales
US: 12:45 ICSC-UBS Retail Chain Store Sales, 13:55 Redbook, 15:00 Conference Board Consumer Confidence, 15:00 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, 22:00 ABC News Consumer Confidence
Results
UK: BP, Reckitt Benckiser, Whitbread, Brown Group, Zincox Resources
IRE: Icon
EU: Vestas Wind Systems (Denmark), Daimler (Germany), Deutsche Bank (Germany), SGL Carbon (Germany), DSM (Netherlands), KPN (Netherlands), Yara International (Norway), Fabege (Sweden), Svenska Cellulosa (Sweden), Svenska Handelsbanken (Sweden)
US: Pfizer, Franklin Resources, Bristol Myers, Cabot Oil & Gas, Sun Microsystems, Jacob Engineering, Level 3 Communications, Massey Energy, Range Resources, Southwestern Energy, Tellabs, Unisys, United States Steel
Wednesday 06-05-09
IRE: 11:00 New Private Car Registrations, 11:00 New Vehicle Registrations, 11:00 Total Persons on Live Register, 11:00 Trade Balance, 11:00 Unemployment Rate
EU: 08:00 Spanish Retail Sales, 09:00 Eurozone Bloomberg Retail PMI, 09:00 Eurozone M3 Money Supply, 09:00 French Bloomberg Retail PMI, 09:00 German Bloomberg Retail PMI, 10:00 Eurozone European Commission Economic Sentiment, 10:00 Eurozone European Commission Common Factor in Industry, 10:00 Eurozone Consumer and Economic Confidence
US: 13:30 GDP, 13:30 GDP Price Index, 13:30 Personal Consumption, 19:15 Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision, 15:35 Oil Inventories
Results
UK: Home Retail Group, Royal Dutch Shell, ARM Holdings, Burberry, Fenner, Lookers, Punch Taverns, Wolfson Electronics
EU: DSV (Denmark), Novozymes (Denmark), Sanofi-Aventis (France), STMicroelectronics (France), Bayer (Germany), Sap (Germany), Siemens (Germany), Volkswagen (Germany), Continental (Germany), Vossloh (Germany), Norsk Hydro (Norway), Renewable Energy (Norway), Nordea Bank (Sweden), Sandvik (Sweden)
US: Barrick Gold, Akamai Technologies, Amkor Tech, Baker Hughes, Citrix Systems, Express Scripts, General Dynamics, Hess Corporation, Human Genome, IAC/Interactivecorp, JDS Uniphase, LSI, Moody, MGIC Investment, Starbucks, Southern, Questar, Time Warner, Visa, Varian Medical
Thursday 07-5-09
UK: GfK Consumer Confidence
EU: Eurozone Total Housing, German Retail Sales, 07:00 German ILO Unemployment Rate, 07:45 French PPI, 08:55 German Unemployment Rate, 10:00 Eurozone Flash Estimate of CPI, 10:00 Eurozone Unemployment, 10:00 Italian European Harmonised CPI
US: 13:30 Employment Cost Index, 13:30 Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims, 13:30 Personal Income and Expenditures, 14:45 Chicago PMI, 15:00 Total Milwaukee Index, 15.35 Gas Inventories, 21.30 Money Supply
Results
UK: Astra Zeneca, BG Group, BSkyB, Shire, Smith & Nephew, Heritage Oil, Trifast
IRE: Independent News
EU: Novo Nordisk (Denmark), BASF (Germany), Fresenius Medical Care (Germany), Fresenius (Germany), Infineon Technologies (Germany), Deutsche Lufthansa (Germany), Man (Germany), Hugo Boss (Germany), Wacker Chemie (Germany), Aker Solutions (Norway), Fred Olsen Energy (Norway), Ericsson (Sweden), Swedish Match (Sweden)
US: General Motors, Proctor and Gamble, Exxon Mobil, Apache, Cabelas, CIGNA, Colgate Palmolive, Comcast, Cummins, Covidien, Dow Chemical Co, Eastman Kodak, Fiserv, Hartford Finanical Services, International Paper, Microchip Tech, Motorola, Noble Energy, Newmont Mining, NYSE Euronext, PerkinElmer, Q Logic, Strayer Education, Tyco, VIACOM, Williams Companies, Wynn Resorts
Friday 08-05-09
UK: 09:30 Bank of England Mortgage Applications, 09:30 M4 Money Supply, 09:30 Markit Manufacturing PMI, 09:30 Net Lending to Individuals
IRE: 11:00 Retail Sales
US: Auto Sales, 15:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 15:00 Manufacturers New Orders, 15:00 University of Michigan Survey
Results
UK: Colt Telecom
US: Chevron, Consolidated Edison, Nicor, Simon Property Group
Press Roundup
In a move that is likely to become more frequent in the coming months, two of Britain’s best known entrepreneurs, Hugh Osmond and Peter Hargreaves, are considering leaving Britain in protest against Alistair Darling’s new 50% tax rate, reveals the Sunday Times.
The Sunday Times breaks the news that Northern Rock is to be sold off by the end of the year under a fast-track government plan to start clawing back some of the hundreds of billions of pounds of taxpayers’ money ploughed into the banking sector.
Senior bankers and board members at Deutsche Bank are considering their positions after heated rows over the decision not to pay bonuses at the group, according to the Sunday Independent.
The Irish Times reports that Denis O’Brien, Independent News & Media’s second-biggest shareholder, believes that there is only a “50-50 chance” of the media group refinancing a €200 million bond that is due to be paid on May 19th.
The Irish Independent understands that a number of rival airlines and private equity firms are eyeing up Aer Lingus with a view to becoming a strategic partner with the carrier.
Disclaimer
The comment in this article is the personal opinion of the author(s) and not paddypowertrader. The content does not constitute financial, investment or tax advice. You are advised to discuss your specific requirements with an independent financial adviser prior to entering into any bet. paddypowertrader is not responsible and disclaims any and all liability for the content of comments written by contributors to the article, and the content of any third party sites linked from this article
If you aren't a paddypowertrader client or if you would like to receive the Weekly Wrap at a new email address, please enter it below.
All BlogsCar Trouble For Stocks
A late pre-mayday slump yesterday saw the US market give back earlier healthy gains as traders worried over the governments heavy handed and ham fisted handling of the Chrysler saga and the shift back in focus to GM ... Read more
Economic Indicators To Look Out For
Month End Madness
Spread Trading Compared To Share Trading
Stocks Piggyback On The Fed
Dollar Falls As Equity Rally Continues
What Next For The U.S. Recession?
See all blogs
Trader Academy
For in depth tutorials and step by step
guides to spread betting visit our
trader academy.
Visit the Trader Academy
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