Forex Trading Signals for 21-09-2009 --->3 days
There seems to be a notable pullback on Gold, and Silver possibly functioning as a leading indicator of USD strength, and if you guys remember, this 1.4700 area was the level I've eyeing for quite some time to be the potential top of this EUR/USD rally. Short term, I think we could get action in either direction here on Monday and Tuesday, but long term the big opportunity is short. I'm not quite ready to pull the trigger and shove in a huge trade short just yet because we may have a final push to new highs here in the next day or two.

As far as the GBP is concerned, let me remind you guys of the new stance from Wednesday's Forex Trading Signal 9-16-2009:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sir Pipsalot
Last night we also had a very big tape bomb from the Bank of England's Governor King. In testimony he basically said they're considering cutting interest rates which was a big surprise to the market and has lead to considerable GBP weakness. I anticipate further gains in EUR/GBP of several hundred pips over the coming weeks and months as the GBP weakens. It also may be a good chance to get in early on the big USD turn by getting in short GBP/USD while we wait on EUR/USD. I think going long EUR/GBP (currently around 0.8910) and/or short GBP/USD (currently around 1.6460) make good sense for position trades, but I'm probably going to wait a bit on the GBP/USD short and wait until I enter EUR/USD sometime in the next week or so.
So far the long on EUR/GBP has been good for about 140 pips, and it's halfway to it's ultimate 0.9200 target. If you had gotten short on the GBP/USD (I did not) it's up 260 pips. My plan was to wait until we're ready to short EUR/USD to also short GBP/USD, and if we do get an ending rally on EUR/USD, that may float up GBP/USD enough to short it from a higher level than the current 1.6200. However, the reason I'm short term neutral on USD in general is that we may have topped out already and it's all downhill from here. With some key confirmations, I won't mind chasing it on the way down a bit.

On Silver and Gold, as I said we've had some notable pullbacks, and at this point, there's some key question marks. Is this a decent retracement before the final push higher, or is it the start of the downward reversal we've been waiting for? We'll have to wait at least another day to know for sure, but I'm holding the 2nd half of my long from $976 with a break even stop and a $1035 take profit.

On stocks, as with the other markets, we may have topped out, but it's a bit more likely there that we have another rally leg yet to go. Often times stocks will peak out a bit later than the correllating currencies, so I'm not in a rush to get back short on stocks unless we break down through 1035 on the S&P.
FOREX TRADING MISTAKES