the outlook on the Euro and GBP in a bit of a pickle where I'm not sure if 1.4450 on the Euro will be breached before a turn lower or if we'll get that turn sooner. When I see something more clear for the short term there, I'll let you know in the daily signals, but I'm holding my longer term position trade short and fading on rallies for now. The basic gist is, the Euro and GBP should turn lower, it's just a matter of when, and from where? Hopefully soon!
Stocks definitely started their final rally leg a bit earlier than expected and that leg is well underway. We still could have quite a bit to go upwards before it's complete, but once it's over, we're going to have a VERY major reversal down to around 400 on the S&P. If you're a strickly long term player, you may want to start fading this rally to get in short. If you're playing the shorter term upside, the likely target range is 1050 to 1075 or so. Once we get up there we'll be able to better see if there's even more short term upside potential or if it's time to start loading up short for the short, medium and long run.
Gold and Silver are in a similar pickle along with the USD mixed pressures. The longer term trend is pretty clearly down, but this week could see a move higher before lower potentially. Once things clear up a bit on the short term I'll update that in a subsequent daily signal... but the 990 and 15.20 levels on Gold and Silver should not give way even if we do head higher first. I'm continuing to hold Silver and Gold long term short and I'm fading rallies on Silver.
For the nice short term news opportunities, we do have one possibility on Monday:
0830 CAD Retail Sales (headline) expected at 0.2% -- I think we should play this one safe and look for a 1.0% deviation to get a nicer move out of this indicator. Surprises less than that have been able to move USD/CAD about 20 pips, but not much more... so I'd prefer to trade something larger to make it worth our while.
If it comes out at 1.2% or higher, USD/CAD should sell off 30 pips.
If it comes out at -0.8% or lower, USD/CAD should rally 30 pips.
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